Trump Faces Oil Price Surge Just 12 Days Before Midterms

Oil prices surged on Thursday after a bombshell report said Donald Trump and Israel had developed plans for fresh attacks on Iran once the midterm elections conclude.

Brent crude climbed 2.68 percent to $111.74 a barrel on Thursday morning. The jump comes just 12 days before the November midterms, putting further pressure on the president as he races to bring down prices at the pump.

Rising gasoline costs have intensified the cost-of-living crisis, while Republicans face the growing possibility of losing control of both the House and Senate in less than two weeks.

According to The New York Times, American and Israeli commanders have outlined a “short but intensive” campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile and drone capabilities.

Trump has also discussed using the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb—known as the “Mother of All Bombs”—against Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear facility buried deep beneath granite.

Officials say the president is privately drawn to the weapon in part because of its striking nickname.

Some US planners believe a three-day bombardment could push Iran’s already weakened economy to the brink and compel Tehran to abandon its nuclear program after almost eight months of war.

Trump said earlier this month that he would not launch an attack before the election. The full US military force, including three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines, is not expected to be in position until early November.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Israel this week to discuss the proposed strikes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Even so, there is no certainty that the operation will proceed. Trump has repeatedly canceled planned combat missions, including one that was called off at the last minute earlier this month.

Tehran has vowed to respond with force, warning that it could expand its targets beyond oil tankers and energy facilities to regional data centers and undersea internet cables.

“Our attacks will be more fierce, creative and different,” said Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator.

Since the war began, Iran has caused severe disruption to global oil supplies by restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and has been targeted with speedboats, mines and explosive drones.

An analyst in Tehran said Iran could retaliate against any attack on Pickaxe Mountain by striking major Saudi refineries, including facilities operated by Aramco. Such action, the analyst said, would drive energy prices higher and put additional pressure on American voters.

The State Department ordered nonemergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, pointing to a rise in attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants against civilian targets.

The White House declined to comment on military planning, saying only that Trump was keeping all options open to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Some on Wall Street argue the hit to Americans’ wallets may be softer than in oil shocks of decades past.

‘$100 oil today is very different than $100 oil, you know, 20, 30 years ago,’ said David Wagner, head of equity at Aptus Capital Advisors.

He pointed to government figures showing gasoline swallowed roughly 5 percent of the average American’s disposable income a decade ago, around double its share today.