Donald Trump suggested Ukraine ‘may be Russian someday’ in his latest inflammatory comments on foreign policy, while insisting the United States remains committed to talking to both sides of the conflict and reaching peace terms. Ahead of the third anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine this month, Trump discussed the war and U.S. mediation with Fox News, aired on Monday.

‘They may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,’ he said. ‘We are going to have all this money in there, and I say I want it back. And I told them that I want the equivalent, like $500 billion worth of rare earth,’ Trump said. ‘And they have essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid.’ The comments will be met with glee by Vladimir Putin as Trump pivots away from the Biden administration’s promises of continued support for Ukraine, urging compensation in kind. Trump has instead suggested a trade for Kyiv’s natural resources, such as rare minerals. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shown willing to work towards such a deal in return for continued support.

Surrounded by speculation on the shape of a long-anticipated American peace plan, previously expected to emerge this week, Trump assured that ‘we’re dealing with the Russians. We’re dealing with the Ukrainians. I think there’s going to be something done’ in his comments to Fox. He went on to confirm that he will soon dispatch special envoy Keith Kellogg to Ukraine, tasked with drawing up the proposal to halt the fighting. Kellogg had been expected to bring forward a plan at the Munich Security Conference this week. Vice President JD Vance is now gearing up to head to Munich to meet Zelenskyy on Friday, expected to discuss Washington’s push to help end the war.

Donald Trump told reporters on board Air Force One on Sunday that he believed that the U.S. was making progress towards peace, but declined to provide details about any rumored communications with Vladimir Putin. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to end the war and that he will meet Putin to discuss it, though the date or venue for a summit is still not publicly known. The Kremlin has been equally cryptic in addressing talks with the U.S., saying yesterday that it could neither confirm nor deny whether the two leaders had yet spoken to discuss a way to end the war. A sticking point for the United States is the continued supply of military aid to Ukraine. The U.S. State Department reported last month that the country had contributed $65.9bn since February 2022. American GDP last year alone was around $29trn.

In a bid to win over support at home, Trump has sought to carve out a new deal exchanging aid for access to Ukraine’s rare minerals. Zelenskyy made overtures towards working towards such a deal in comments to Reuters on Friday: ‘If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it.’ While showing willing to continue supporting Ukraine in return for compensation, Trump’s latest comments that Ukraine ‘may be Russia someday’ fueled his detractors, and unsettled allies. Trump is separately facing criticism for his comments committing to ‘buying and owning’ Gaza, threatening to undo decades of international diplomacy, and moving the population out of their homeland during the rebuilding process. Critics have called the policy tantamount to ethnic cleansing. In Europe, Trump is still pressing for a swift end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, after advisors were forced to concede last month that ending the war would take ‘months or even longer to resolve’.

Trump had previously suggested he could end the war within 24 hours, before taking office. Kellogg had initially set himself a timeframe of 100 days in another interview with Fox News. To reach favorable terms, Zelenskyy is calling for tough security guarantees from Washington as part of any deal with Russia. Zelenskyy called Monday for ‘real peace and effective security guarantees’ for Ukraine. ‘Security of people, security of our state, security of economic relations and, of course, our resource sustainability: not only for Ukraine, but for the entire free world,’ he said. ‘All of this is being decided now,’ Zelenskyy added in a video address published on social media. Kyiv fears that any settlement that does not include hard military commitments – such as NATO membership or the deployment of peacekeeping troops – will just allow the Kremlin time to regroup and rearm for a fresh attack.

This proves a challenge. Moscow has expressed opposition to the potential deployment of peacekeeping troops from NATO countries in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin also asserted Ukraine must end its ambitions to join NATO as part of a peace deal. He said last year that a deal would hinge upon Ukraine’s recognition of Russia’s claim to four regions in its east and south, including areas not currently controlled by Russia. Zelenskyy has rejected any territorial concessions to Moscow, though he has acknowledged that Ukraine might have to rely on diplomatic means to secure the return of some territory. Russia says it has annexed five regions of Ukraine – Crimea in 2014 and then Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk and Zaporizhzhia in 2022 – though it does not have full control over them.

Both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin have previously ruled out direct talks with each other, and there appears to be little ground where the two could strike a deal. Ahead of the third anniversary of the invasion – an invasion Russian officials believed would take a matter of days at the beginning of the war – Zelenskyy is expecting to meet Kellogg in Ukraine on February 20 to discuss progress towards ending the war. Zelenskyy said yesterday that a meeting with Trump was also being arranged though a date had not yet been fixed, while Trump had said last week he would ‘probably’ meet Zelenskyy in the coming days, but ruled out personally travelling to Kyiv.

The New York Post reported Saturday that Trump told the publication he had spoken on the phone to Putin to discuss bringing an end to the conflict in Ukraine, saying the Russian leader had told him he ‘wants to see people stop dying’. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to confirm or deny the call. Russia continues to advance across Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, where it has captured several settlements – mostly completely flattened by months of Russian bombardments – over the past year. Moscow has also pursued a months-long bombing campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, claiming the attacks targeted facilities that aid Kyiv’s military. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian energy minister said the energy sector ‘continues to be under attack’, and Kyiv is ‘urgently apply emergency power supply restrictions’ to ‘minimize possible consequences’.

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