With ceasefire negotiations looming, it looks like President Donald Trump got tired of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluster. In a move likely meant to build leverage, the Trump administration has not renewed a Joe Biden-era waiver that facilitated European purchases of Russian oil.

As RedState reported, after the US president asked Putin to stop “pounding” Ukraine so talks could be organized, Russia proceeded to escalate attacks, including on civilian areas. Perhaps the purpose was to show strength and put Trump on his heels at the negotiating table. Whatever the reason, it doesn’t seem to have worked in Russia’s favor.

BREAKING: Trump had cut off all Russian oil sales to EU!

Treasury has ended the Biden exemption that allowed sanctioned Russian banks to process European payments for oil sales. Now no one in Europe can purchase Russian oil pic.twitter.com/zOCqzlc0Di

— Marc Thiessen 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦🇹🇼🇮🇱 (@marcthiessen) March 13, 2025

Here’s my current view on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Can Putin conceivably “win” the war through sheer attrition if he continues to feed hundreds of thousands of lives into a meat grinder for years on end? He probably can, but that does not mean he has all the leverage. Wars of attrition aren’t free. They cost lives and money, and Russia has paid a hefty price to get as far as it has. The question isn’t who can win. The question is what each side is willing to do to achieve victory. 

With that said, there’s a bit of a myth surrounding how Russia “wins” wars. When it comes to dealing with invasions of its own territory, yes, it has historically taken a very much “to the last man” approach. When it comes to Russia’s invasions of other countries, though, the record is mixed. Did they come out victorious in Afghanistan (the half a dozen times they’ve fought there)? What about the invasion of Albania? Or Cheychna? Or Russia’s involvement in Syria? I wouldn’t exactly call the Winter War a resounding success either given Finland ate their lunch and prevented the Soviet plan to take over the country. Keep in mind, those are just giving examples from the last century.

The point is that Russia is a more powerful country than Ukraine. Of that, there’s no doubt. But to say some overrate their abilities is stating the obvious. If Russia could just steamroll through Ukraine, they’d have already done so. If they could just shift all their oil sales to other, more friendly nations and not lose money, they’d have already done so. 

In other words, Trump does have leverage as the parties come to the table, and Putin should think about being a bit more amicable going forward. Russia may have a path to victory four years from now, but that’s going to cost them an unimaginable amount of men and machinery to achieve. And for what? Just so Ukranians can wage a resistance war? Does Russia even have the peacekeeping capacity to control Ukraine if it takes it? Its more recent incursions into Africa, for example, suggest it doesn’t. 

Russia benefits if this war ends, especially since it will almost certainly get to keep some of the territory it has taken. It would behoove Putin to check his ego and let the process play out. If he softens, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this waiver granted as a show of good will. It’s his choice.