A new analysis on the Trump administration’s tariff policies found several industries could face cost increases of up to 4.5 percent.

The Washington Center for Equitable Growth found prices rising from 2 to 4.5 percent, with particular vulnerability to the manufacturing sector and the repair and maintenance industries, including auto repair shops.

Researcher Christopher Bangert-Downs said those industries are “highly exposed to tariffs” as raw material imports from China could face heightened levies. The world’s two largest economies have been pushing to establish more permanent exchange policies after a May truce from the trade war. 

“Importantly, manufacturing would likely be the most vulnerable industrial category regardless of the commodity or country specifics of a given tariff regime,” according to the Tuesday release. 

“Some manufacturing subsectors may be less harmed than others, but the overall reliance of the sector on imported inputs means manufacturing will face greater intermediate tariff costs compared to other industries,” he added. 

Bangert-Downs said 8 million workers are employed in construction in an average month in 2025, while more than 1 in 10 U.S. workers are employed in adjacent careers.

Under new trade rates, some companies could start firing employees due to economic pressures.

“Numerous factors outside the purview of this analysis will dictate how domestic employers pass down tariff costs to workers, including union coverage, gender and race, and other workforce characteristics,” according to the organization’s findings.

“The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says, for example, that more than 10 percent of construction workers and 7.9 percent of manufacturing workers are covered by a union contract, meaning those workers might be marginally more protected against tariff-caused job losses, compared to the average worker in the U.S. private sector, where the union coverage rate is 5.9 percent.”

Bangert-Downs signaled that other sectors could experience success from the president’s new trade rates.

“President Trump’s far-reaching tariff policy is sure to have deep and often contradictory economic consequences for the United States and the world. Some U.S. industries may indeed experience a revival, as their products become more competitive in domestic markets compared to tariffed imports,” the organization wrote. 

“But it is unclear whether those potential benefits will outweigh the costs of tariffs, not only for consumers facing higher prices but also for U.S. workers themselves,” they added.