Republicans are being pushed into unexpectedly difficult battles for seats they once considered secure, as President Donald Trump’s weak standing with voters and growing economic anxiety threaten the party’s prospects in the midterm elections.
In deep-red Mississippi and Kansas, Democratic challengers have turned Senate contests into competitive races. Republican House incumbents in Colorado and Minnesota are also facing well-funded opponents with Election Day only a week away.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 showed Trump with a 32 percent approval rating, while 66 percent of respondents said they disapproved of his performance.
Among likely voters, Democrats held a 53 percent to 44 percent advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot once the preferences of previously undecided voters were included.
The economic mood was similarly bleak, with 73 percent of those surveyed saying the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that voter frustration over Trump, tariffs and the war in Iran has created a difficult environment for Republicans. As a result, incumbents in districts and states once viewed as reliably GOP are being forced to campaign aggressively to protect their seats.
Mississippi Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, running for another term in a state Trump carried by 23 percentage points in 2024, is facing a stronger-than-anticipated challenge from Democrat Scott Colom.
A Change Research survey of 842 likely voters conducted October 21 and 22 showed Hyde-Smith leading Colom by only three points, 43 percent to 40 percent.
Mississippi Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith has collected just over $6 million for her reelection campaign, but a series of missteps—including remarks about the rising cost of groceries—has given her opponent material for a viral attack ad.
Representative Roger Marshall has raised $6.9 million this election cycle, well below Hamilton’s $16.3 million, and has faced backlash over comments minimizing high gas prices and criticism of his handling of patients with medical debt.
Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert moved to a more conservative district ahead of the 2024 election, but Democrat Eileen Laubacher has significantly outpaced her fundraising, bringing in $13.7 million compared with Boebert’s $1.2 million.
Hyde-Smith has raised slightly more than $6 million in her reelection bid, but her campaign has been hampered by several missteps. Among them were comments about grocery costs that Democrats quickly transformed into a viral attack ad.
Asked about the price of meat, Hyde-Smith suggested that voters consider less expensive protein options. Democrats have seized on the remark as they try to connect her campaign to broader concerns about household affordability.
Trump traveled to Mississippi on Monday night to campaign alongside Hyde-Smith, who described him as the best president of her lifetime.
Even with the race tightening, Hyde-Smith is still considered the favorite, according to The Washington Post.
No Democrat has won a Mississippi Senate election since 1982.
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Kansas Republican Senator Roger Marshall is encountering a similar challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, despite having won his first Senate term by a double-digit margin.
The latest polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, released October 27, showed Hamilton at 46.2 percent and Marshall at 45.8 percent—putting the contest effectively at a dead heat.
The close numbers highlight the competitiveness of a race taking place in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Trump’s political standing, combined with voter anger over tariffs and the war in Iran, has made the midterm landscape difficult enough that traditionally safe Republican incumbents are now fighting hard to stay in office.
In southern Minnesota, Republican Representative Brad Finstad is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Jake Johnson, who has consistently out-raised him
Democrats poured more than $1.2 billion into advertising across competitive congressional races nationwide, with spending accounting for more than half of all advertising in over 70 percent of those races.
Marshall has raised $6.9 million this election cycle, far less than Hamilton’s $16.3 million, and has faced criticism over his comments dismissing high gas prices and his handling of patients with medical debt.
Trump is heading back to Texas for a fourth visit this election season on Tuesday, holding rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock to boost embattled Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton as he battles Democrat James Talarico in a tightening race.
The warning signs extend beyond the Senate.
In Colorado, Republican Representative Lauren Boebert moved to a more conservative district before the 2024 election, but Democrat Eileen Laubacher has raised $13.7 million compared with Boebert’s $1.2 million.
In southern Minnesota, Republican Representative Brad Finstad is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Jake Johnson, who has consistently out-raised him.
Outside groups have spent about $276,000 supporting Finstad, while more than $3.1 million has been spent opposing him, according to FEC filings.
Outside Democratic groups are also pouring millions into the race, despite Trump winning the district by double digits in 2024.
According to a Washington Post analysis published October 14, they’ve poured more than $1.2 billion into advertising across competitive congressional races nationwide, with spending accounting for more than half of all advertising in over 70 percent of those races.
The situation echoes the 2010 midterms, when Democrats suffered major losses during the Tea Party wave, including the defeat of longtime Minnesota Representative Jim Oberstar in a district he had won by 35 percentage points two years earlier.
But the Post cautioned that even a significant Democratic wave may produce fewer seat changes than in previous elections because redistricting has left Republicans with fewer House seats in Democratic-leaning districts.