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Welcome to The Hill’s Defense & NatSec newsletter

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Defense &
National Security

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The Big Story

Where US troops in Mideast are most at risk of Iran strike

Tens of thousands of U.S. troops are within Iran’s striking distance should President Trump decide to wade into Israel’s conflict with Tehran and directly attack the country.

More than 40,000 American service members and civilians — as well as billions of dollars in military equipment — are in the Middle East, spread out across bases in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Those working in countries closest to Iran, including Iraq and Kuwait, would conceivably have only minutes to prepare for an incoming Iranian strike, a likely outcome should Trump order the U.S. military to join Israel’s bombing campaign, experts say.

“If [Iran] had the ballistic missiles ready to go, those strikes could happen in under 15 minutes. Launched to target,” retired Col. Seth Krummrich, vice president at security consultancy firm Global Guardian, told The Hill. “They move very quickly.”

Israel last week unleashed a barrage of airstrikes on Iran that set off the largest conflict ever between the two regional adversaries, with Tehran responding with its own attacks. The war has threatened to pull in the U.S., which says it supports Israel’s right to defend itself but has not directly involved itself in the bombing.

Trump has not yet decided on possible American military action against Iran, telling reporters through his top spokesperson that he would make his decision within two weeks.

But Iran has already threatened to directly attack U.S. forces should they enter Israel’s war campaign, with the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning Wednesday that “Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.”

Tehran’s threats aren’t idle, as the country has retaliated against Washington in the past, most notably in January 2020, when Trump in his first term ordered an airstrike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force.

The strike, which happened as Soleimani traveled to Baghdad, prompted a swift response from Iran, which days later hammered Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq and another U.S. base in Erbil with 13 ballistic missiles. While no Americans were killed in the largest ballistic missile attack ever against U.S. forces abroad, more than 100 were later diagnosed and treated for traumatic brain injuries.

Now, with Trump reportedly considering using the GBU-57 — known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator or so-called bunker buster bomb — to damage Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, a similar attack from Tehran could soon be at hand.

Read the full report at TheHill.com.

Welcome to The Hill’s Defense & National Security newsletter, I’m Ellen Mitchell — your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond.

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Essential Reads

How policy will affect defense and national security now and in
the future:

Trump: ‘Hard’ for Israel to stop strikes now

President Trump said Friday it would be difficult for Israel to stop strikes on Iran at this point, a week into the intense conflict between the two nations and two weeks out from the president’s decision on U.S. involvement. “I think it’s very hard to make that request right now,” he said when pressed about the Iranian foreign minister saying that the U.S. would call on Israel to stop airstrikes if Trump is serious about …

Full Story

Democrat: Trump 2-week Iran deadline ‘not a bad thing’

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) tepidly praised President Trump on his handling of the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran, after the president said he would wait two weeks to decide whether to take direct action against Iran. “The fact that we’re not reading about a U.S. attack on Iran right now actually gives me a little bit of comfort,” the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee told independent …

Full Story

Israel, Iran trade strikes as Trump weighs US military involvement

Israel and Iran traded strikes on Friday as President Trump weighs the possibility of U.S. involvement and European officials seek to revive nuclear negotiations with Tehran. Israel said it hit 60 Iranian aircrafts early Friday morning along with the headquarters of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, which carries out nuclear weapons research, according to the Associated Press. Iranian media said Israel’s …

Full Story

On Our Radar

Upcoming things we’re watching on our beat:

President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will join the 2025 NATO Leaders Summit at the Hague, Netherlands on Tuesday.

In Other News

Branch out with a different read from The Hill:

DHS places new limits on lawmakers visiting ICE facilities

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is placing new limitations on lawmakers seeking to visit detention facilities, releasing guidelines in the wake of visits from Democrats that have turned confrontational. Members of Congress have the legal right to make unannounced visits to U.S. Immigration …

Full Story

On Tap Monday

Events in and around the defense world:

The Afghanistan War Commission will hold its third public hearing at 8:30 a.m.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a talk on “Space Force International Partnership Strategy,” at 10 a.m

What We’re Reading

News we’ve flagged from other outlets:

Judge asks if troops in Los Angeles are violating Posse Comitatus Act (The Associated Press)
Hegseth cancels massive contract for military family moves, pledges fixes (Military.com)
The Army is deactivating police units in deep cuts to number of military cops (Task & Purpose)

Trending Today

Two key stories on The Hill right now:

Senate parliamentarian knocks pieces out of Trump’s megabill

Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough has ruled that several key pieces of the massive bill to implement President Trump’s agenda run afoul of … Read more

Supreme Court rules against FDA, EPA

12:30 Report is The Hill’s midday newsletter. Subscribe here or using the box below: Close Thank you for signing up! Subscribe to more newsletters … Read more