This year’s MLB Home Run Derby is set to emphasize a more refined approach, placing the spotlight on the quality of swings rather than the quantity.
Shaking up the traditional format, participants will no longer face the pressure of a ticking clock. Instead, they are now allotted a finite number of swings—20 in the first round, followed by 15 swings each in the second and third rounds. This change is designed to enhance the experience for both players and spectators alike.
In this revamped format, every swing carries weight, underscoring the importance of precision. Batters must focus on making solid contact with the ball, as each swing counts comprehensively, regardless of whether it results in a home run.
The competitors vying for glory in this event are formidable, with Kyle Schwarber emerging as the current favorite at +340 odds. Close on his tail are Munetaka Murakami at +470 and Junior Caminero at +490. Jordan Walker, Jac Caglianone, Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, and Wilson Contreras also feature prominently, standing as viable contenders with odds ranging from +600 to 11/1.
2026 Home Run Derby odds
| Batter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | +340 |
| Munetaka Murakami | +470 |
| Junior Caminero | +490 |
| Jordan Walker | +600 |
| Jac Caglianone | +650 |
| Bryce Harper | +800 |
| Ben Rice | +900 |
| Willson Contreras | 11/1 |
All-Star events like the Home Run Derby present golden opportunities for betting enthusiasts who have an eye for leveraging statistics. By scrutinizing metrics such as Exit Velocity, Hard Hit percentage, and Launch Angle, prospective bettors can craft well-founded strategies that align closely with the given odds, enhancing their likelihood of success.
If you focus on power numbers like Exit Velocity and Hard Hit percentage, Murakami stands out among the group. His average Exit Velocity is 94.4 mph, and his Hard Hit percentage is 59.7 percent.
If you select for contact numbers like Launch Angle and Sweet-Spot percentage, Schwarber has the edge with an average Launch Angle of 21.8 degrees and a Sweet-Spot percentage of 39.5 percent.
This new format should put a bit more emphasis on the latter two, but power is still important for getting out of the opening round, with home run distance as the tiebreaker.
The player who represents the most value on the board compared to their odds is Rice. He has the second-longest odds among the group, but has the second-best average rank across the four indicators behind Schwarber. The drawback with Rice is that his average home run distance (389 feet) and longest home run (433 feet) trail the rest of the field.
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Walker, who has the third-best average rank among this group, is the other player I’m targeting. He has the profile to be a strong competitor with a better average home run distance (406 feet) and the third-longest homer (459 feet).
I’ll split my bet across both guys and hope for some fireworks.
The Play: Ben Rice (+900, FanDuel) | Jordan Walker (+600)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.