Decision Desk HQ has projected Abigail Spanberger as the winner in the Virginia governor’s race.

Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat and former congresswoman with three terms under her belt, went head-to-head with Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor of Virginia. This election was set to determine the state’s first female governor.

Spanberger entered Tuesday’s election as the favorite to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, bolstered by a significant fundraising advantage. 

The race was widely viewed as a test of Democratic strength in a state that backed Kamala Harris by six points in 2024 narrower than Joe Biden’s 10-point margin in 2020.

Virginia has a long history of swinging away from the party in the White House. In 11 of the past 12 gubernatorial elections, voters have chosen a governor from a different party than the incumbent president. The lone exception came in 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe was elected while Barack Obama was in the Oval Office.

Spanberger, a centrist Democrat, leaned heavily into cost-of-living concerns throughout the campaign, unveiling her “Affordable Virginia Plan” in June, a blueprint focused on tackling health care, housing and energy costs.

Rising electricity bills have become a key concern in Virginia, which has quietly become the data center capital of the world. 

Spanberger laid out a plan to support solar and wind production in “common-sense locations,” but Earle-Sears criticized that approach at a recent debate: “Well, if you look outside, the sun isn’t shining and the breeze isn’t blowing, and then what, Abigail, what will you do?”

Instead, Earle-Sears pushed for what she called an “all-of-the-above approach” that includes coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear and renewables.

More broadly, the lieutenant governor vowed to fight for “common-sense tax cuts” and opposed sanctuary cities, promising to work alongside the Trump administration to remove those who “threaten public safety.”

Earle-Sears also leaned into cultural issues throughout her campaign, attacking Spanberger over transgender issues and accusing her of being “for they/them, not us.” 

Abortion rights were another key issue for voters. Virginia remains the only Southern state that has maintained broad access to abortion since the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 eliminated a national right to the procedure, according to The Associated Press.

Spanberger supports a proposed state constitutional amendment that will reach voters only if Democrats maintain their House of Delegates majority. Earle-Sears, a longtime abortion opponent, said that voters will ultimately decide on the constitutional amendment.

About three-quarters of Virginia voters in the 2024 presidential election said abortion policy had an impact on which candidates they supported, per the AP. But far fewer, just 1 in 10, considered it the nation’s top issue, well behind the economy and immigration. 

President Donald Trump voiced support for Earle-Sears but had not fully endorsed the GOP nominee one day before the election. 

As of early September, there were about 6.3 million registered voters in Virginia, though they do not register by party.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.