() President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, and that means Americans could see higher gas prices.

Analysts say that states in the Northeast could be affected first and see a 20 to 40 cent increase per gallon on the price of gas.

Trump said open trade has cost Americans factory jobs and that the tariffs will be a “path to prosperity” for the country in the long run. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said with the closure of a refinery in 2019, Northeastern states rely on Canada for oil and could feel the effects of higher gas prices by mid-March.

Canada is the fifth-largest producer of natural gas, exporting half of its supply to the U.S. in 2024. Sixty percent of U.S. crude oil imports also came from the country. The Midwest, Great Lakes and the Rockies could see anywhere between a five- to 25-cent increase per gallon in two to three weeks if tariffs stay in effect.

“If the tariffs disappear quickly, the impact may as well,” De Haan said.

De Haan said gas prices are already low compared to last year because of concern over the economy regarding the impact of tariffs and that oil prices have fallen recently because of the economic duress the tariffs could bring.

“If the economy slows down, we’ll see lower gas prices because Americans will buy less, spend less and travel less,” De Haan said. “If we see a stronger economy, we see higher gas prices because of more demand.”