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A rather unusual meteorological event is currently unfolding in the Atlantic Ocean, and it might just slow down the pace of this year’s hurricane season, according to experts. This phenomenon is occurring despite the powerful El Niño that is stirring the waters in the Pacific.
Meteorologists are paying close attention to what is known as an Atlantic Niña, an infrequent drop in sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic. This cooling trend tends to create an environment that is unfavorable for the formation of hurricanes.
“With an Atlantic Niña, we usually see reduced tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. It creates conditions that are less favorable for the development of tropical storms,” explained Alan Reppert, a meteorologist with Accuweather, in an interview with The Post.
The onset of the Atlantic Niña has led to a significant decrease in sea temperatures, dropping them by 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit below the average levels.
If the cooling continues, this would be only the sixth summer Atlantic Niña in the last 40 years of data, according to analysis from Severe Weather Europe.
Meanwhile, a Super El Niño has been warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific since June and is projected to be the largest one in at least 150 years, according to Nature.
Peak temps in the Pacific Ocean are currently 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, according to National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration data.
Studies suggest Atlantic Niñas are associated with about 50% fewer tropical cyclones than normal, including fewer storms that make landfall in the US.
But this storm season will still be busy.
“We expect 11-16 storms, 4-7 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes,” said Reppert. “Of those, 3-5 US impacts are expected. The highest risk areas for the additional impacts include the eastern Gulf of America coastline and coastal North and South Carolina.
“The El Niño typically has a greater impact on the tropical Atlantic season than Atlantic Nina,” he added.
“The next few weeks appear to be pretty quiet with limited chance for development, especially for the beaches along the Northeast US coastline,” Reppert said.
“But, if a storm develops and moves through a highly populated area or forms and moves just right, it can be a big season with just one storm.”