Prediction markets forecast Zohran Mamdani to win NYC mayor race
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Don’t look now, but it appears the controversial candidate is separating himself in the New York City mayoral race.

Democratic primary victor Zohran Mamdani is heavily favored to win in the November election, with prediction market Kalshi giving him a 72 percent chance of success.

Kalshi, a CFTC-approved derivatives market that allows bets on real-world occurrences, is accepting wagers on this election, with $12,917,756 already staked in the market as of Thursday morning.

Mamdani, while favored, has seen his lead dwindle a bit.

He got as high as 94.8 percent in April, so there is some potential that a different candidate could close the gap.

Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo — whom Mamdani defeated in the democratic primary — has a growing chance, according to the money market.

He is at 15 percent, significantly higher than the less than two percent chance he had in May.

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams has remained steady with a nine percent chance of victory come November.

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is an afterthought, with his odds coming in at just three percent.

There were speculations that Silwa might withdraw from the race, allowing either Cuomo or Adams to assume the Republican candidacy for NYC Mayor. However, this has not occurred as the election approaches.

The election is scheduled for Nov. 4, and around that time bets will be paid out on Kalshi, which is available in all 50 states.

A $10 bet on Cuomo would pay out $67 ($57 profit) if he can overcome Mamdani, while a $10 bet on the favorite would pay out just $14.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

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