One of America’s most Democratic states is experiencing a dramatic shift to the right for the first time in decades. 

A recent survey indicates that New York may present a competitive opportunity for Republican candidates, with the prospect of challenging the current Democratic Governor, Kathy Hochul, who is seeking reelection in 2026.

A GrayHouse poll found that just 36 percent approve of New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s performance and 55 percent disapprove.

According to a Republican political strategist in New York, Hochul’s approval ratings have significantly dropped, especially concerning in a state where Democrats form the majority of the electorate.

Surprisingly, even former President Trump holds a better approval rating than Hochul in this predominantly Democratic state, with 43% of respondents approving of him compared to 56% who disapprove.

The poll of 826 registered voters in New York was conducted between April 22 and 28 with a 4 point margin of error.

Political consultants were dazzled by President Donald Trump’s increased voter share in New York in the 2024 election, and are excited by indications that the rightward realignment can continue. 

Rampant crime, out-of-control immigration, and corruption has seen support swinging towards the Republicans as Empire State residents grow frustrated with the lack of accountability  after decades of single party political leadership.

The state’s Democratic leadership has faced a popularity slide on the back of  radical left wing policies, such as draconian Covid restrictions and soft-on-crime policing. 

Republicans have been reaping the benefits of the realignment.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks at a news conference, Feb. 20, 2025

Chobani Founder and CEO Hamdi Ulukaya, left, is presented with the ‘Spoon to the State’ from New York State Governor Kathy Hochul during a groundbreaking ceremony

The Republican Party gained Hispanic, Black, Asian-American voters as suburbanites and working class voters responded to their message of tougher enforcement of crime and immigration, and promising to address the cost of living and inflation.

Trump shocked the state after he only lost by 13 points to Kamala Harris, increasing his voter share in 2024 by 11 points. 

The last time New York voted for a Republican president was Ronald Reagan in 1984, 40 years ago. 

Trump gained more than 600,000 votes in New York between the 2016 and 2024 elections. Harris’ margin of victory was the narrowest of Democratic presidential candidates since 1992.

In 2022, Republicans flipped all four congressional seats away from Democrats, helping give House Republicans the majority in Washington, DC.

Republican candidate for governor Rep. Lee Zeldin came within 6 points of defeating Hochul as the final tally was 47 percent to 53 percent.

Republicans are anticipating a rematch with Hochul as her approval ratings are weaker than ever.

‘The rightward shift of New York, in particular New York City, has been happening since 2006,’ GrayHouse pollster Landon Wall told the Daily Mail.

Wall indicated that Trump’s gains in New York City could even help a potential future Republican candidate. 

But the newfound excitement from Republicans in the state is bigger than just Donald Trump.

‘There’s this energy and this desire for something counter to the one party rule in New York that is separate from the Trump effect,’ Wall said.

Sixty percent of voters statewide say it’s ‘time for someone new,’ including 75 percent of Independents and even 34 percent of Democrats.

The poll shows that rising Republican star Elise Stefanik, 40, is within striking distance of Hochul if she decides to run a campaign for governor.

Forty-six percent of voters said they would vote for Hohul, while Stefanik would earn 40 percent of the vote. Fourteen percent of voters were undecided.

That’s a strong start for Stefanik to consider the race, as she has not even announced a campaign.  

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-NY., speaks during the House Committee on Education and Workforce hearing

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) walks through Statuary Hall

Stefanik has a clear lead with Republicans in the state, with 44 percent of primary voters signaled their support for a potential run for governor. 

Only seven percent chose Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

In an interview with the Daily Mail, Stefanik indicated she was seriously considering a run for governor.  

‘If you look at the past few election cycles, New York is moving toward the Republican direction, and I believe that’s a result of single party failed Democrat rule led by Kathy Hochul,’ she said. 

Originally selected by Trump to serve as his Ambassador to the U.N., the president withdrew her nomination so that she could remain in the House of Representatives where Republicans are clinging to a slim majority. 

But that hasn’t stopped her political momentum. Stefanik is stepping up the number of events in the state and has strong support for a run.

‘I’m gonna fight for New Yorkers like I always do. We are crisscrossing the state… we are hearing an outpouring of support importantly not just from Republicans, but from Independents and Democrats as well. It has been overwhelming. New Yorkers want to fire Kathy Hochul,’ she said. 

Trump’s performance in the state, his rallies, and events only helped increase the number of Republican supporters, she said.  

‘The trends are only continuing. You look at President Donald Trump’s outcome on Election Day in New York, he did better in some parts of the city than any Republican in decades,’ she said. 

New York’s gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026