GOP, Democrats are targeting these 10 House districts
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Several notable House retirements and a handful of redistricting battles are putting multiple seats in play for both parties as they vie for control of the lower chamber next year. 

Rep. David Schweikert (R), who represents a battleground district in Arizona, announced he will not seek reelection next year and instead will run for governor, offering Democrats a rare pickup opportunity.

Democrats also feel they are a step closer to nabbing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District after Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said in June he will not run for reelection.

Meanwhile, a broader redistricting war has set off a scramble for both parties. 

Here’s a look at key pickup opportunities in the House for Republicans and Democrats.

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP TARGETS 

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District 

Schweikert announced Tuesday he would leave his House seat in the northeast Phoenix suburbs to run for governor as Republicans look to defeat Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) next year. 

A former state lawmaker, Schweikert has served in Congress since 2011. He won his last election against Democrat Amish Shah, an emergency room physician and former state lawmaker who’s running for his seat again next year, by close to 4 points. President Trump won his district by 3 points, according to The Downballot. 

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates his seat as a “toss up.” 

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District 

Bacon announced in late June he was going to retire from the House after his current term, capping off a decade in the lower chamber. 

Bacon proved to be a formidable candidate in a district that the parties have traded in presidential contests. He notably knocked off former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.) during his first election in 2016 by just morer than a point. 

Bacon said he made the decision to retire to spend more time with his family back home. Cook rates the seat as “lean Democrat.” 

California’s 1st Congressional District 

California Democrats will have the opportunity to pick up a handful of House seats next year if voters approve a new set of congressional lines this November. Democrats passed the maps in hopes of neutralizing gains Texas Republicans are expected to make with their new House map. 

One Republican who could be poised to lose his seat is Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) in California’s 1st Congressional District. He has served in the House since 2013 and represents a district in Northern California that stretches down to the northern suburbs of Sacramento. 

LaMalfa, a Trump ally, won his last election in November by more than 30 points. Under the new proposed map, however, his district would be broken up into three pieces, offering Democrats a pickup opportunity. 

“LaMalfa’s district, currently Safe Republican, picks up very blue turf in the Santa Rosa area to become a double-digit Harris district,” noted Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, managing editor and associate editor, respectively, of Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics. 

California’s 3rd Congressional District 

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), a former state lawmaker who also served as a state deputy attorney general, is another Republican who could face a tougher race if California voters approve a Democratic-favored congressional map. 

Kiley’s district hugs much of California’s border with Nevada and is already considered a competitive district Trump won the seat by close to 4 points in November and won it in 2020 by close to 2 points, according to The Downballot. 

Under the new map, Kiley’s district would be significantly smaller while still encompassing some of the eastern Sacramento suburbs. Kondik and Coleman say the new district, if passed, would have gone for Harris by 10 points.  

California’s 41st Congressional District 

Another member to watch for amid the broader California redistricting battle is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.). He’s served in Congress since 1993 and represents a district in Riverside County.  

Calvert’s seat was already competitive, with Trump having won it by close to 6 points in November and just more than a point in 2020. Under the new map, the district would be an entirely new one and considered a safe pickup opportunity for Democrats. Based on last year’s vote, it would have gone for Harris by 14 points, Kondik and Coleman say. 

“In Southern California, Rep. Ken Calvert’s (R, CA-41, Riverside County) district is essentially eliminated. The proposed CA-41 appears as a Latino-majority Los Angeles seat—to some degree,” they note. 

“The district as drawn in the proposal took a big step to the right in the 2024 presidential race, going from Joe Biden by 26 points to Harris by 14, but it’d still be a Safe Democratic district in the context of 2026 (although maybe not later in the decade if the Hispanic vote takes another move to the right),” they added. 

GOP PICKUP TARGETS

Texas’s 34th Congressional District 

Texas Republicans redrew their congressional lines amid a push from President Trump, ultimately creating a map that looks to offer them five more seats next year. 

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) already represents a GOP-leaning House seat in South Texas, but the new map would include some of Nueces County. 

Kondik and Coleman noted in another analysis the new district would have gone for Trump by 10 points, though the two say his district and that of the 28th District “are made more Republican-leaning on the map, but not by so much that they are guaranteed Republican wins.” 

Opponents are looking to temporarily block the map from being used while litigation winds its way through the courts, though it’s not clear if critics of the GOP-favored map will succeed.  

Texas’s 35th Congressional District 

Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) represents a House seat that spans from Austin to San Antonio, though the new map would effectively eliminate his seat and remake it into a San Antonio-area seat. 

Instead of a Democratic bastion that went for Harris by close to 34 points, the redrawn congressional lines would have instead gone to Trump by 10 points. Casar has said he will be running in the Austin-based 37th Congressional District.  

Missouri’s 5th Congressional District 

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), a former Kansas City mayor who has served in the House since 2005, is at risk of losing his seat next cycle after Missouri passed a map that looked to dismantle his district.

Under the new map, Kansas City would be broken up between three districts, and Cleaver’s district would also include some eastern rural areas. Coleman noted in a separate analysis that the new district would have gone for the president by 18 points a far cry from the 23 points Harris won it by last year. 

It’s not entirely clear whether Missouri will use that map in 2026 because, like Texas, it’s been subject to litigation. Opponents of the map are also using the referendum process to force a statewide vote over the new maps. 

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District 

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) who’s the longest-serving woman in congressional history has turned back GOP efforts to defeat her repeatedly.

Her district hugs the northwest corner of the state, including Toledo, and went for Trump by close to 7 points last cycle. Trump won it by 3 points in 2020. A formidable Democratic candidate, she won her last election by less than a point. 

Ohio is required to redraw its maps this year after the maps used in the 2022 cycle didn’t receive enough bipartisan support. While Republicans haven’t even introduced their own map and the process moved over to the Ohio Redistricting Commission this month it is expected that Republicans will draw a map intended to make Kaptur’s reelection more difficult.

Ohio’s 13th Congressional District 

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) is expected to be a top target for Republicans when they redraw their maps. Sykes has served in the House since 2023 and represents the 13th Congressional District, which includes Akron. 

Sykes won her district in November by 2 points. It split its votes between Harris and Trump in the presidential race.  

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