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The ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran is anticipated to result in prolonged periods of elevated fuel costs for both consumers and businesses worldwide, according to expert analysis.

While there’s hope that the conflict, which has spanned a week, might conclude swiftly, the aftermath will likely entail significant challenges. These include dealing with damaged infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and heightened shipping risks.

This situation not only threatens the global economy but also poses a potential political challenge for US President Donald Trump as the midterm elections approach.

According to JP Morgan analysts, the market is transitioning from merely factoring in geopolitical tensions to confronting actual disruptions in operations. Shutdowns of refineries and limitations on exports are beginning to affect crude processing and regional supply chains.

The conflict has already caused a halt to approximately 20% of the global supply of crude oil and natural gas. This disruption stems from Tehran’s targeting of vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman, and its attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the region.

Global oil prices have surged more than 25% since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide.

A nearly complete shutdown of the Strait means the region’s giant oil producers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait – have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil – equal to about 1.4 days of global demand – to global refiners.

As a result, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Middle East Gulf are rapidly filling, forcing oil fields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the United Arab Emirates likely to cut next, analysts, traders and sources have said.