Californians Divided on Billionaire Tax and Oppose Voter ID Requirement, New Poll Reveals

In the run-up to November’s vote, California finds itself sharply divided on two polarizing ballot measures.

The spotlight is on Proposition 40, popularly referred to as the one-time billionaire tax, which currently enjoys 48% support among likely voters. However, 41% remain opposed, leaving 11% of the electorate undecided, according to a recent survey conducted by UC Berkeley in collaboration with the Los Angeles Times.

“While Prop 40 is ahead, its lead is neither wide nor commanding,” observed Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director, in a conversation with the Times. “Ballot initiatives generally benefit from having clear majority support, but we aren’t seeing that with this measure just yet.”

The proposed billionaire tax has ignited a heated debate among Democrats. While many labor organizations are rallying behind it as a shield against looming federal health care cuts, high-profile personalities such as Governor Gavin Newsom express concern that it might jeopardize the state’s economic health.

The urgency for Prop 40 to secure “yes” votes cannot be understated, especially as billionaires like Sergey Brin funnel resources into rival initiatives poised to potentially nullify its effects. As is customary, the initiative with the majority vote will ultimately prevail and be enacted.

“There’s going to be a lot of campaigning, apparently on the no side especially. So we’ll see,” DiCamillo said on the changing dynamics. “But you know, I think it’s confusing to voters in some ways.”

According to the poll, the billionaire tax is seeing stronger support from younger Californians. Minorities, women and lower-income voters were also more likely to back it than white voters, men and those who earn at least $200,000 annually.

Meanwhile, Prop 39, the initiative that would require strong identification rules has just 42% support, with over half of would-be voters opposing 39.

The divide among Prop 39 is more clearly partisan, with 80% of Democrats opposing it and 90% of Republicans supporting it. However, unaffiliated voters were not in favor by a 54% to 36% margin.

“It’s a very traditional Democrat versus Republican split,” said DiCamillo, who expected not to see major shifts in the numbers.

State Republicans are leading the push for Prop 39 and claim most Californians do think voter ID requirements are common sense. But they cried foul on a description rewrite by state Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, that they said framed the measure more negatively.

When supporters gathered more than 1.3 million signatures to qualify Prop. 39 for the November ballot, its title said the measure “establishes additional voter identification and citizenship verification requirements.” Bonta’s office changed the language to say: “Prohibits citizens from voting unless they present government-issued identification.”

Supporters sued Bonta but lost in court.

“California politicians know that a supermajority of California voters support Prop 39’s bipartisan solution for Voter ID — so now they are corruptly trying to rig the election by putting a biased and dishonest title on this common-sense measure,” Assemblymember Carl DeMaio (R), the chief backer of the measure, said in a statement.

The Berkeley poll surveyed 4,207 California registered voters online from August 3 to 9. It has a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.

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