Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Thursday that the United States is seeking to weaken Canada in order to “own us,” as he called on oil-rich Alberta voters to reject a move toward separation in Monday’s referendum.
The ballot does not ask Albertans to vote directly on independence. Instead, the province—which holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves—will decide whether to remain part of Canada or direct the government to begin the legal steps toward a future separation referendum.
“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Carney told a packed pro-Canada gathering in Calgary. “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us.”
Although Carney did not name the United States or President Donald Trump in that portion of his speech, he has made similar references in previous remarks. His warning comes amid Trump’s trade conflict with Canada and his repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state. Carney has said Canada must strengthen its economy and reduce its reliance on its southern neighbor.
The prime minister also cautioned Albertans against treating the vote as a symbolic warning to Ottawa, saying a strong result could push the separation issue well beyond a simple protest.
“Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” Carney said. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”
Carney makes the case for Canada
Carney, who was raised in Alberta, spent Thursday campaigning in Calgary before speaking at the Forever Canadian rally at the BMO Centre. His office said roughly 5,000 people attended, while some waited more than two hours to pass through security. A second rally featuring Carney was scheduled for Edmonton on Friday.
Earlier in the day, Carney highlighted the connections between Alberta and the rest of Canada, including the large number of residents who were born or educated elsewhere in the country. He also pointed to firefighters from across Canada who travel to Alberta to help battle wildfires.
At the Calgary event, Carney also recognized the deep frustrations that have driven Alberta’s alienation from Ottawa.
“The frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real,” he said. Carney recalled that, while growing up, Ottawa made people in Alberta feel “like our resources weren’t our own.” More recently, he said, the province was left feeling that its energy industry was “against the tides of history.”
A Liberal prime minister finds unlikely support
Carney’s appearance in Alberta marks an unusual moment for a Liberal prime minister. The province has spent decades clashing with Liberal governments in Ottawa, especially over energy policy and federal authority. Yet Carney has moved away from some of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s policies, expedited a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific and promoted Canada as an energy superpower.
Carney cited the Pacific Link pipeline as a sign that the relationship is changing, saying the project could create more than 140,000 jobs and provide revenue for social programs.
The loudest applause came when Carney said the pipeline would help Canada become less dependent on the United States.
“Careful, they might think that’s election interference. A little touchy,” Carney joked, prompting laughter from the crowd. His remark referred to U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s warning that Canadian politicians should not interfere in U.S. midterm elections.
Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence organization Let Alberta Decide, said Carney’s presence and message present a serious obstacle for the separatist campaign.
“He’s formidable for sure,” Clemens told The Associated Press.
Still, Clemens dismissed Carney’s agreements with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith as little more than “pinky promises,” arguing that they fail to address the province’s longstanding complaints about Ottawa.
Keith Wilson, another Let Alberta Decide leader, rejected Carney’s claim that international instability makes the current moment unsuitable for a referendum process.
“The worst timing for this, why? I don’t understand what’s the logic,” Wilson said. “Then it’s the best time for him to get back to Ottawa.”
Wilson said Carney should instead ask Parliament to repeal federal measures that separatists believe have damaged Alberta. He pointed to powers that could potentially be used to tax oil exports in response to U.S. actions, predicting that Carney would ultimately impose such a levy—even though the prime minister has said he sees no benefit in using Canadian energy exports as leverage against Washington.
“It’s one cabinet meeting away,” Wilson said. “He’s gonna do it. He has to do it.”
Smith, who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, cast her ballot Wednesday and said she voted for Alberta to remain in Canada. She has said support for separation remains too high for her liking.
“Canada can still work,” Smith said after voting. “We just need to make some changes.”
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, called Carney’s popularity in Alberta “highly unusual” for a Liberal prime minister. He said Carney has also benefited from a “Trump effect,” as Trump’s trade war and 51st-state threats have rallied Canadians around their leader — even in Alberta.
From the political fringe to a provincewide vote
The referendum marks a remarkable rise for a cause long relegated to Alberta’s political fringes. After the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, activists who had organized against vaccine mandates and other restrictions turned their attention to Alberta independence.
The convoy began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers but grew into a broader protest against pandemic restrictions, paralyzing downtown Ottawa and blocking major Canada-U.S. border crossings.
Clemens said COVID accelerated the movement by teaching people how to organize politically and become more involved in party politics. She said separatists also see Monday’s vote not simply as a step toward independence but as a way to give Alberta leverage in negotiations with Ottawa.
Advance voting runs through Saturday, with the final vote Monday.
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