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Odds of a government shutdown soared on Tuesday, spiking to an 87 percent chance, as Democrats doubled down on their vendetta against Donald Trump.
With mere hours left before the midnight funding cut-off, left-leaning obstructionists led by Senator Chuck Schumer are holding the federal government – and American families – at bay in their attempt to push through billions in unnecessary spending.
Vice President JD Vance accused the Democrats of putting ‘a gun to the American people’s head’ with their demands.
‘I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,’ he said on Monday.
This could result in hundreds of thousands of federal employees being furloughed without pay, with military families often bearing the brunt, as service members’ pay could be delayed and child care centers on bases might close due to reduced staffing.
The nine million veterans and their families relying on critical VA services and benefits also face delays and disruptions.
The likelihood of a government shutdown on the prediction market Kalshi peaked at 87.3 percent this morning before easing to 84 percent. This indicates that a $100 bet on a government shutdown results in $20 in winnings, while betting against it can yield $489.
The Democrats are demanding that taxpayer funds continue to pour into the bloated Obamacare program that Trump has vowed to dismantle.

The chances of a shutdown on prediction market Kalshi soared as high as 87.3 percent this morning and then pared back to 84 percent. This means for every $100 bet on a government shutdown, gamblers earn $20, betting against earns $489

Donald Trump last night sparked liberal fury as he posted an image depicting House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wearing a sombrero alongside Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer speaking in a fake voice. Jeffries and Schumer had met with Trump just hours before at the White House in an attempt to negotiate a deal on the funding
Hardworking taxpayers have seen massive gains under Trump’s second term: record-low unemployment, surging wages, and a leaner bureaucracy.Â
But now, the Democrats are seizing the rare opportunity to flex some leverage over the federal government, eight months into Trump’s rip-roaring second presidency.
Unless Congress passes a bill before midnight to fund federal operations, the government will partially close up shop – and plunge Washington into a new round of political crisis.
Government shutdowns are deeply unpopular in the United States, and Democrats and Republicans alike try to avoid the scenario – while blaming the other camp should a closure arise.
Republicans have proposed to extend current funding until late November, pending negotiations on a longer-term spending plan.
Democrats want to see hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare spending restored, particularly in the Obamacare health insurance program for low-income households, which the Trump administration plans to eliminate through its so-called ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ passed in July.
They also want to block Trump and Republicans from cutting approved funds later through the so-called ‘rescissions’ process, as they did this summer. The process requires only a simple majority to pass.
‘Ultimately he’s the decision-maker,’ Schumer said of Trump. ‘And if he will accept some of the things we asked – which we think the American people are for, on healthcare and on rescissions – he can avoid a shutdown, but there are still large differences between us.’
The House has already passed a short-term funding extension, and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has sought to force Senate Democrats’ hands by not bringing his chamber back to Washington this week.
Johnson, speaking alongside Vance and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, accused Democrats on Monday of ‘trying to bring in extraneous issues’ instead of accepting his chamber’s ‘clean’ proposal to extend funding.
‘If the Democrats make the decision to shut the government down, the consequences are on them, and I think it’s absolutely tragic,’ he said.
The gridlocked Congress regularly runs into deadlines to agree on spending plans.
In March, with the threat of a shutdown already looming, Republicans refused to engage in dialogue with Democrats over massive budget cuts and the layoffs of thousands of federal employees.
That time, ten Senate Democrats, including Schumer, reluctantly voted for the Republican stopgap measure to avoid a shutdown. But their decision angered the party base, which is demanding that Democrat leaders to stand up to Trump.