(The Hill) The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has ignited a debate about whether there is room for a political center. 

Fewer and fewer people seem to identify as moderate today than even a decade ago, and politicians are rarely aiming their messages to such voters.

Twenty-four years ago, as the country reeled from the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the electorate seemed to prefer leadership over party and someone who could bridge the divide and produce results.

In the days following 9/11, even Democrats rallied behind then-President George W. Bush and then-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has in recent years become the butt of Democratic jokes. 

Now, political observers acknowledge, it is the voices on the left and the right who receive the most attention, drive news cycles, and get the most clicks on social media.

“We are in an environment that forces you to take a side,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, who served as the executive director of the New York State Democratic Party. 

“There’s a hunger for moderation but I think structurally it has become really difficult to do that in our country for a number of reasons.”

When Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, a Republican, struck a grounded, politically mild message that called for civility and unity on the heels of the shocking killing of Kirk, he was hailed by some observers.

But Cox was also immediately slammed by conservatives and progressives alike for delivering a message that was off-putting to both sides.

Conservatives, like Steve Bannon, a former strategist to President Trump, called the governor “a national embarrassment” and wanted Cox to show more anger and be less conciliatory. And progressives, more quietly, said they felt Cox was just another conservative who towed the Trump line. 

“He got criticized from the right and left, which means he was somewhere in the middle and I’ll take the middle,” said veteran Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support President Trump. 

But fewer and fewer Americans may see the middle as where they want to be.

A Gallup survey out earlier this year showed that the percentage of Americans identifying as “moderate” declined from 43 percent in 1992 to 34 percent in 2024. 

The same survey showed the number of Republicans who identify as conservative or very conservative reaching record highs.

In 2024, 77 percent of Republicans described themselves as conservative in the Gallup poll, a record high and a 4-point increase from 2023. Twenty-four percent of Republicans also identified as very conservative, which also set a new high. 

The number of voters who identify as liberal is also quickly rising. 

In 2024, 55 percent of Democrats identified as liberal in Gallup’s poll, a high point. And 19 percent said they were very liberal, which was also a record high. 

Smikle pointed to social media as a reason for some of the shifts, which has isolated views and beliefs at both ends of the political spectrum.

Trust in institutions has also eroded, a factor in President Trump’s rise and the rise in progressivism led by political figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). 

“What distinguishes current political polarization is a more widespread belief that differences of opinion are not a feature of our discourse but a threat to our existence,” Smikle said. “And people who feel threatened often seek more extreme solutions rather than ones that de-escalate tension and build consensus.” 

“I still think that most people do share the opinion that they do want moderation but they’re concerned about the penalties for bridging that divide,” Smikle added. 

Efforts to change congressional districts in red states like Texas and blue states like California are another reflection of an isolated political center.

Political observers say those redistricting efforts are yet another way of doubling down on the political divide while erasing the middle. 

Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons maintained there is still a sizable political middle even though it’s smaller than it was. For proof, he said, look no further than the recent presidential elections, in which there were voters who flipped from supporting Trump to former President Biden and vice versa. 

And while the energy of the Democratic Party appears to be on the left, Simmons said there are candidates including Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who is running for governor in New Jersey, who are seeking to appeal to centrist voters.

Sherrill, Simmons pointed out, appears in television ads where she talks about serving in the Navy as a helicopter pilot, which could be welcoming to more conservative-minded voters. 

“I’m sure that’s frustrating to some progressives but there are more voters to pick up than she’ll lose,” Simmons said. 

Looking to 2028, there are a handful of potential Democratic candidates who also tack more to the center, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. 

On the Republican side, after Cox offered his message of civility and unity on the heels of the Kirk shooting, there was a rumbling among operatives about whether he could consider a run for president himself. 

“Certainly on the right, he is offering a different vision that’s palatable” to centrists, Simmons said. “It’s a presentation that brings people in and doesn’t push them away.” 

But one GOP strategist put a hard stop on that idea.  

“It’s not where the Republican Party is right now. I think some people like the idea in theory but just like Democrats want to fight, Republicans are itching for a fight too. And he doesn’t represent that.” 

Put more bluntly, even with his conservative roots, the strategist added, “He would never, ever get past the primary. He would be cooked.” 

Del Percio agreed.

“Let’s face it, no other president has had the influence on the Republican Party that Donald Trump has,” she said.

And while Cox was inspirational in the moment, she said, “It was a rainbow, and as great as a rainbow is, it disappears.”