CHICAGO (WLS) — Chicago is on track to conclude the year with its lowest homicide count in over a decade, with a notable reduction in violent crime overall.

What factors are contributing to this decline?

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Crime analysts are offering their insights into this positive trend.

Despite some high-profile violent incidents earlier this year, the city has experienced a significant decrease in murders and shootings.

However, experts note that identifying the exact reasons for these declines remains challenging.

A weekend shooting downtown left one man dead and another three wounded, serving as a reminder that big cities can be dangerous places.

But in 2025, Chicago overall was a much safer place than is has been in past years.

According to an ABC7 Chicago Data Team analysis of Chicago police crime stats through Dec. 20, there have been 417 murders in Chicago. That’s the lowest number in at least 10 years.

It represents a 36% decline from the average of the last three years.

Police Superintendent Larry Snelling says there are many factors involved.

“Our partnerships, everyone working together, across the board, internally within the Chicago Police Department, top-down leadership, intelligence-driven policing,” Snelling said.

This past summer, a mass shooting at a nightclub left four people dead and another 14 wounded by gunfire. And yet, this year, shootings across the city are way down.

Chicago is on pace to have fewer than 2,000 shooting victims for the first time in a decade, which is nearly a 40 percent decline compared to the average of the past three years.

A University of Chicago Crime Lab analysis of this year’s crime statistics found violent crime was down, not just in Chicago, but in many other big cities, too.

“The honest answer is we don’t know exactly why crime is down. There has been a lot happening in the last few years, as we’re all aware, a lot of economic, social, institutional factors. They’re all changing at the same time,” said Kim Smith, with the University of Chicago Crime Lab.

The study suggested that Chicago’s decline in violent crime may not be due to specific things happening locally. But violence prevention groups believe their efforts are helping make a difference.

“One shooting, or one, you know, murder is one too many. But when you think about over a 10 years, a concerted effort to reduce violence, it’s moving in the direction that we expect,” said Domonique McCord, with Metropolitan Peace Academy.

The mayor believes critical investments are paying off.

“So, whether it’s the partnerships or the investments, that’s necessary. That’s investments in youth employment, mental and behavioral health care services and support. But it also means that we have to invest in the divisions of policing that are strategic,” Mayor Brandon Johnson said.

Besides shootings and murders, overall violent crime in Chicago is also at its lowest point in 10 years.

There are some concerns that with the reduction in federal dollars for community violence intervention programs, the downward trends may not continue in 2026.

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