President Trump has not only made headlines with ICE arrests and deportations but has also implemented a separate “mass deportation” program. This program aims to incentivize undocumented individuals to return to their home countries voluntarily.

And if reports are correct, that plan is more successful than anyone could have imagined.

Based on government data, my organization, the Center for Immigration Studies, has conservatively estimated there are about 15.4 million illegal aliens in the United States, a 50% increase over the four tumultuous years of the Biden administration. 

That’s no surprise, given how Biden and his Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas ignored congressional detention mandates and ushered millions of illegal migrants into the United States. 

Trump rode a wave of concerns about the costs those migrants are imposing on schools, hospitals, housing, and essential government services in cities and towns across the United States to a second term.  

Now that he’s back in the Oval Office, it’s up to him, “border czar” Tom Homan, and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to drive the unauthorized population down and restore credibility to our immigration system.

They’ve implemented a two-track plan to tackle this onerous task.  

One of those tracks relies on arrests and deportations of aliens unlawfully here, which at the outset has focused mainly on criminals (the “worst first” strategy).

The other track is more subtle but also cheaper for taxpayers and arguably much more effective —encouraging illegal migrants here to self-deport. 

It began with an Inauguration Day Trump directive requiring DHS to ensure all aliens present in the United States — legal and otherwise — have registered with the federal government, and to prosecute those who don’t comply.

By late February, Noem had implemented that registration program.

DHS next launched a multi-million-dollar ad campaign warning migrants not to enter illegally or, alternatively, to leave voluntarily now and possibly “have an opportunity to return and enjoy our freedom and live the American Dream.”

Noem also rebranded the notorious CBP One app — which the Biden administration used to funnel hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants into our country — as “CBP Home,” which aliens can use to “notify the U.S. Government of their intent to depart”.  

That rebranding coincided with an offer of financial incentives for aliens who leave voluntarily, a stipend of $1,000. That’s in lieu of costly physical deportation, which can cost taxpayers $17,100 per person on average.

How effective has self-deportation been?  

One way to track the program is by checking employment numbers. One financial wiz cited by the Wall Street Journal calculated a decline in the immigrant population of 773,000 in the first four months of Trump II. 

The Washington Post claims “a million foreign-born workers have exited the workforce since March.” The Post frames this as “a sign of the weakening labor supply.” Yet the paper also notes, “Average hourly wages accelerated, rising by 0.4 percent over the month, to $36.24 in May, as earnings continue to beat inflation in a boost to workers’ spending power.”

In other words, with fewer illegal immigrants, businesses had to raise wages to attract workers.

But aliens will only leave if they believe Trump and Homan are serious about arrests, and employers know the feds are targeting shady businesses.  

This voluntary exodus shouldn’t be surprising.  When President Eisenhower launched his deportation round-up in 1954, nearly 10 aliens left voluntarily for each one arrested.  A post-9/11 registration program also drove self-deportations.

DHS can’t arrest and deport 15.4 million illegal aliens, but if it simply enforces the law, many aliens will get the message and leave on their own — as hundreds of thousands apparently already have.

Andrew Arthur is the fellow in law and policy at the Center for Immigration Studies.