Democrats are building a sizable advantage in early and mail-in voting as Americans cast ballots, accounting for a clear majority of votes submitted so far.
State election records compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News show Democrats making up 54% of early and mail-in voters, compared with 30% for Republicans and 16% identified as independent or “other.”
That early-voting lead is also visible in several closely watched Senate contests, including races taking place in traditionally Republican-leaning states.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is challenging former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, and registered Democrats account for 55% of early voters compared with 36% for Republicans.
Iowa is showing a similar pattern in the race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. Democrats represent 57% of early voters, Republicans 29% and “other” voters 14%.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is facing Democrat Troy Jackson. Registered Democrats make up 55% of ballots cast early, compared with 19% from Republicans, while more than a quarter come from voters listed as “other.”
The figures reveal who has voted or returned a ballot—not which candidates those voters supported.
“We know the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage,” said Stephen Voss, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky.
The larger question, he said, is whether the early turnout signals a broad-based voter wave or simply reflects “upper status voters who always vote anyway.”
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Comparing this year’s numbers with early voting totals from four years ago offers one way to assess that question.
In Republican-leaning Nebraska, where GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts is competing against independent Dan Osborne, Democrats have widened their early-vote advantage. They currently account for 45% of ballots compared with 38% for Republicans, versus a 44%-41% split at the same point in 2022.
According to the Nebraska secretary of state, 89% of Democrats who have voted so far also cast ballots in both 2022 and 2024, while 10% are new voters.
Among Republicans, 91% of early voters participated in previous elections, and only 7% are new voters.
Virginia has recorded a dramatic surge in early voting, with 519,000 ballots submitted compared with 260,000 at the same stage in 2022. Turnout has doubled in left-leaning Fairfax County.
Texas, meanwhile, is showing a striking Democratic advantage in the high-profile contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats account for 62% of early voters, compared with 32% for Republicans.
Democrats have historically been more likely to vote early or by mail. President Trump, however, has repeatedly criticized mail voting and promoted in-person Election Day participation, describing mail-in ballots as “inherently corrupt.”
This year, though, Trump has begun shifting that message during campaign appearances and in posts online.
In a video released last weekend, Trump addressed supporters from the Oval Office and urged them to act if their state offers early voting: “Do not wait. Go out and vote. Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd, so we can defeat the radical left ‘Dumocrats’ in a midterm victory that is too big to rig.”
He also encouraged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”