$5K baby bonuses not likely to meaningfully increase US birth rate: Demographer
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() The idea of giving out $5,000 baby bonuses for women who give birth to help reverse a birthrate decline has several more than a few pitfalls, according to an expert in the statistical study of human populations.

“I would love to see much more focus on the well-being of the population, rather than a specific target for the number of people. And we really don’t see a lot of talk about that,” said demographer Jennifer Sciubba.

The $5,000 “baby bonus” was first reported this week by the New York Times, which stated the White House has explored various ideas to encourage Americans to marry and have more children.

The birth rate hit a low in 2023, when just under 3.6 million babies were born in the United States. That year’s total was about 76,000 less than the year before and was the lowest one-year total since 1979, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Sciubba said that given the cost of raising a child, a one-time payment of $5,000 probably isn’t going to move the needle for most Americans.

“I asked my 12-year-old about this, which, of course, being my son, he knows a little bit more about this than maybe the average person would. I said, ‘Hey, the administration is thinking about $5,000.’ And he said, ‘$5,000? What does that pay for? Like a month of a newborn?'”

Sciubba said declining birth rates could negatively affect the U.S. economy in the long run, but believes there are more immediate concerns.

“We’re going to see some economic strains,” she said. “And if we don’t change other things, such as our working lives for example, when we are not creating conditions for people to stay in the workforce longer if they want to do so or helping them to be healthy enough to do so, that’s a real problem.”

reporter Jeff Arnold contributed to this report.

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