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Finally, the wait is over. There’s a little bit of NFL football to watch tonight and then it’s off to bed. When we all wake up, election day will be upon us.
So where do things stand? Depending on who you ask, you’ll get a range of answers. Democrats are now convinced Nevada’s early voting totals mean they’ll pull the upset in the state’s senate race. Likewise, Republicans are confident that the late shift towards Mehmet Oz will deliver his senate race in Pennsylvania. All across the nation, there are conflicting projections ranging from a red wave to a Democrat shocker, and anyone who looks hard enough can find a data point to confirm their priors.
With that said, here I sit, having predicted Republicans will win the election many times over the last several months. Do I still feel that way? In short, yes, and without further ado, here are my predictions on election day eve.
U.S. House of Representatives
This is, by far, the easiest nut to crack. There is essentially no path for Democrats to keep the House. Remember, even in 2020, where Democrats won the congressional popular vote by nearly four points, Republicans still picked up seats. Recent redistricting has only helped the GOP more, and even if this were a neutral environment (which I don’t think this is), they are in a position to take a sizable majority.
Republicans also have an excellent slate of House candidates in the toss-up races, with heavy Biden districts clearly up for grabs in places like Rhode Island, Oregon, and New York. Democrats have been playing defense all cycle, and nothing in the last week has changed that.
In the end, I’m going to say the GOP picks up at least 230 seats tomorrow with the potential to break 240. For comparison, Democrats ended up with 235 seats following their wave election in 2018.
U.S. Senate
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Here’s where things get tricky. While the national environment isn’t favorable to the Democrats, senate races are notoriously fickle. Oftentimes, candidates are able to buck national trends. We saw that happen with Republicans in 2018, and the states in play this cycle are very unpredictable. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were all blue states in 2020, and they will decide control of the US Senate this time around.
I believe Ron Johnson will be victorious in Wisconsin, and I’m not sure anyone would disagree with that at this point. As I mentioned earlier, Adam Laxalt has been the favorite in Nevada, but in the last two days, a rash of analysts have moved it back toward the Democrats. In Georgia, Herschel Walker will likely get more votes on Tuesday night, but a runoff is the most probable outcome. Mehmet Oz looks to be surging in Pennsylvania, but a lot of early voting happened prior to John Fetterman’s game-changing debate flop. Lastly, Blake Masters remains an underdog in Arizona, but not much of one. He actually might be the one most likely to surprise.
I say all that to say that picking winners might as well be picking names out of a hat. Instead, I’m just going to stick with my gut and say that Republicans end up with 51 Senate seats. I want it to be more, but I won’t believe it until I see it. In that sense, I’m far more reserved than many others on the right, but control is control. That’s what matters in the end.
Governors
Like the House, there aren’t a lot of worries here for the GOP. They won’t win every race they want to, but odds are that Republicans end up bettering their current position. They are competitive in places like Oregon and New York, which shouldn’t be the case. You could see a surprise Democrat victory in a place like Kansas or Oklahoma, but that’s unlikely, in my view.
Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis is going to absolutely destroy his opponent in Florida, further adding to his legend. It’d be a shock for Brian Kemp to not beat Stacey Abrams. The same applies in Texas with Greg Abbott cruising to re-election against Beto O’Rourke. Republicans are asserting themselves against some of the left’s biggest stars, and that matters.
Conclusion
To put it simply, I’m still of the belief that Republicans will walk away happy from this election. I trust my read of fundamentals, and I see no reason to waffle this late in the game. The GOP will take the House, likely take the Senate, and Joe Biden’s agenda will be dead in the water. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the show that is about to begin.
