Knicks fans find themselves in a heated debate with sportsbooks over their team’s odds of claiming the NBA Finals title, prompting an insightful discussion with the expert who sets those odds.
In an exclusive conversation with The Post, DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello shared why the Knicks, fresh off an impressive 11-game winning streak that clinched the Eastern Conference, are still seen as 2:1 underdogs for the championship—despite what fans might believe.
“We’re not trying to undermine the Knicks,” Avello chuckled, addressing the +210 odds for a Finals win and even lower odds against the Thunder, should they advance past the Spurs. “Our model considers the teams’ performances not just during the season but throughout the playoffs as well. They faced the 76ers, who weren’t at full strength with (Joel) Embiid at 50%. And the Cavaliers were not as formidable as the Pistons.”
Currently, the Knicks are listed at +215 odds to defeat the Thunder. If the Spurs manage to come back from a 3-2 deficit in the Western Conference finals, the Knicks face +185 odds against them.
While these odds might see adjustments, the Knicks have long embraced their underdog status, a role they’ve worn proudly from the start.
Star guard Jalen Brunson, who was drafted in the second round of the and counted out for large portions at the start of his professional career, especially embodies that status.
“That doesn’t mean we haven’t seen the Knicks improve or elevate,” Avello continued. “Their overall power rating has grown, but they are defending the champs on the other side. They’ll be less of a dog to the Spurs, but it’s all about who you played through this point.”
Avello added that the Eastern Conference is worse than the Western Conference, which is fair considering the Celtics’ flameout in Round 1 and the top-seeded Pistons’ second-round loss to Cleveland.
“Just look at the East, the Pistons had the second-best record in the league. A few years ago, they couldn’t win a game. They’re not one of the premier teams in the league. The Celtics got (Jayson) Tatum back, but he was injured,” Avello said. “I mentioned the Cavs, they’re a decent team. (James) Harden is a future Hall of Famer, but when you look at his overall game, his defense isn’t good. The Raptors, the Hawks? The West side has Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Lakers. They all rival the top teams in the East. That’s what makes the West a bit stronger.”
Should the Western Conference Finals become a dogfight in Game 6 and a potential Game 7, you could be looking at the Knicks shortening the odds, but they won’t be favorites by the time the Finals start.
“If the Spurs were to win 6 and then it goes 7, and Game 7 is another battle, that may lower the Knicks’ price a bit,” Avello explained. “The amount that they had to work matters. Injuries are an issue for both (the Spurs and Thunder). There are some question marks on both teams, but that price is what we know going into tonight. If the Spurs win (Game 6), the price will come down.”
“If things don’t go as planned on our side, the series goes seven and goes into overtime, and the players are exhausted going into the Finals, it is a possibility that the Knicks close shorter.”
Once the series is concrete, that’s when this is going to be bet on heavily.
“I’m anticipating Knick money. If there’s big money on them, it could move, but we’re not adjusting a line solely based on the money that’s going to come in,” Avello said.
“We price it based on what the line should be. We feel this should be correct.”
Betting on the NBA?
So there you have it, the sportsbooks are drawing a clean line in the sand that the Knicks are inferior to the Western Conference powers.
Perhaps some more bullet-in board material for the “no one believes in us” Knicks.
“I expect this to be the biggest betting basketball series of all time,” Avello concluded.
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