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La Niña is characterized by cooler Pacific Ocean waters, whereas El Niño is marked by warmer temperatures. These two phenomena represent different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
According to the latest ENSO forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, a gradual transition is anticipated. The current pattern is expected to shift from a weak La Niña to a weak El Niño by the conclusion of summer.
This winter has been notably dry for most regions, with only sporadic rain and snowfall. The persistent drought conditions across the southern United States are a direct consequence of a La Niña winter, which has led to below-average precipitation in this area as of mid-January.
Fortunately, El Niño tends to have the opposite effect, typically bringing increased rainfall to the South.
One of the most significant impacts of these changes is on rainfall patterns. A stronger and more active subtropical jet stream during El Niño usually results in wetter-than-average conditions for the southern U.S., including the Southwest and Gulf Coast, with effects most noticeable in winter but possible throughout the year.
In contrast, parts of the Northwest, Plains, and Midwest often experience drier and warmer conditions though the transition can take time and may be uneven.
Looking ahead to summer, the long-range pattern can shape climate conditions in the southern United States. El Niño summers often bring slightly cooler and, in some areas, wetter conditions compared to La Niña summers, which are typically hotter and drier in the South.
Increased spring rainfall can help replenish soil moisture, potentially moderating intense heat early in the season. However, lingering warmth in the atmosphere and oceans can still support periods of extreme heat and humidity, meaning El Niño does not eliminate summer heat risks.
While not all El Niño pattern are the same, here’s an example. Between 2014 and 2015, we shifted into a weak El Niño pattern. This helped enhance rainfall across for several cities across the South.
Let’s hope for more rainfall in 2026 because several cities and states have been in perpetual drought. Especially in South Texas.
Ryan Shoptaugh covers national weather. Check your neighborhood forecast from your local trusted local weather team here.