Election forecaster Nate Silver has issued a new assessment of Democrats’ prospects for capturing Congress, putting the party’s chances of winning the House at 94 percent and its odds of taking the Senate at 75 percent.
The revised forecast, released Monday through his Silver Bulletin newsletter, comes just over two weeks before Americans vote on November 3. Republicans are seeking to preserve their majorities in both chambers.
Silver’s model now gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of taking the Senate, up from 50 percent in early September. Their probability of winning the House has also risen sharply, from 81 percent to 94 percent.
The FiveThirtyEight founder had previewed the changing political outlook during an appearance on The Fifth Column podcast on Friday, October 16, before releasing the updated projection.
These numbers represent model-generated probabilities rather than poll results, and they do not ensure that Democrats will ultimately control either chamber.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating and continuing economic concerns are among the issues influencing the political climate as the midterm elections draw closer.
Recent polling provides additional signs of the difficult environment Republicans face.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted from October 9 to 13 showed Democrats holding an eight-point advantage over Republicans in the contest for House control.
Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 14 points—54 percent to 40 percent—in a SurveyUSA poll.
Texas Democrat James Talarico has a narrower lead over Republican Ken Paxton, 48 percent to 46 percent, according to a University of Houston poll released Monday.
A Quantus Insights survey conducted October 15–17 showed Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff ahead of Republican challenger Mike Collins in Georgia by nearly seven points, 51.8 percent to 44.9 percent.
The same survey recorded Trump’s approval rating at 33 percent among American adults, while 66 percent said they disapproved of his performance.
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Other surveys showed a similar Democratic advantage. An NBC News/Decision Desk generic congressional ballot poll put Democrats ahead 55 percent to 45 percent, while an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed them leading 52 percent to 44 percent.
Democrats must gain four seats to take the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
The outcome is likely to hinge on several competitive Senate contests, including races in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska, which rank among the nation’s closest.
Meanwhile, two states once viewed as battlegrounds are increasingly appearing more secure for Democrats.
In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper holds a 14-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, 54 percent to 40 percent, in a SurveyUSA poll.
In Georgia, Quantus Insights found Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leading Republican challenger Mike Collins by almost seven points. Ossoff received 51.8 percent support compared with Collins’ 44.9 percent in the October 15–17 survey.
Texas Democrat James Talarico is in a closer contest with Republican Ken Paxton, leading 48 percent to 46 percent in a University of Houston poll released Monday.
The fight for House control is also emerging across a number of closely contested districts.
In Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, a Washington Post–Schar School poll put Democrat Shannon Taylor ahead of Republican Representative Rob Wittman by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
In Minnesota, Democrat Jake Johnson led Republican Representative Brad Finstad by two points, while in Virginia’s 2nd District, former Democratic Representative Elaine Luria was ahead of Republican Representative Jen Kiggans by three points.
However, Silver, who projected President Obama’s victory, has a forecast that comes with significant uncertainty.
Even a relatively small polling error could alter the picture in closely contested Senate races.