Regions in West Virginia that once thrived on the coal industry, employing tens of thousands, are now bracing for significant population decreases over the next 15 years.

McDowell County, historically the largest coal producer globally, is projected to see a 32% drop in its population by 2040, according to sobering forecasts from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.

Back in 2020, the U.S. Census recorded 19,111 residents in McDowell County. Hamilton Lombard, who heads the center’s demographic research team, anticipates that number will dwindle to just 13,037 by 2040.

Already, the population has decreased to a little over 17,000 as of 2024. This is a stark contrast to the county’s heyday in the 1950s, when the population peaked at approximately 100,000 during the coal boom.

McDowell is not alone in this trend; ten neighboring counties are also expected to lose tens of thousands of residents collectively. This decline is likely to result in significant reductions in economic output and tax revenue for the state.

Lombard told the Daily Mail that this ongoing trend is not primarily driven by outward migration, though there are certainly natives, particularly college graduates, who have been moving elsewhere to find opportunity.

In 2019 and 2020, McDowell County had nearly twice as many deaths, 638 total, than births, 339, according to data from the West Virginia Department of Health.

Lombard said: ‘There are really only a few other places in the country that are higher than that. Most of them are retirement communities, and McDowell County is not anything like a retirement community in Florida.’

A decaying, unused church in Switchback, a town in McDowell County. The county is expected to lose 32 percent of its population by 2040

An abandoned coal mining town in Fayette County, West Virginia

Downtown Welch in McDowell County. It is expected to lose 32 percent of its population by 2040 

By looking at the current age distribution in these counties, which skews toward people in their 60s and 70s, Lombard was able to confidently make predictions about their future populations. He also took historical demographic trends into account.

‘If you get past a certain age, you’re more likely to die than have a child, would be the crude way of putting it,’ he said. ‘That’ll make it very hard to grow, because even if you’re attracting people, which McDowell County isn’t, you’ve got to attract enough people every single year to make up for that deficit, and that’s just very hard to do.’

Abandoned coal mines, sparsely-traveled town streets and out-of-business signs tacked to the doors of once-bustling establishments are common sights in McDowell County and rural West Virginia as a whole. 

The opioid epidemic has also wreaked havoc on the state. In 2013, opioid overdoses became the leading cause of death for West Virginians under the age of 45.

The coal industry has also been steadily phased out in favor of cleaner energy sources since the 1980s, gradually leaving residents with fewer and fewer jobs.

But it was not always like this. McDowell County used to be a vibrant place to live that attracted young people looking for work.

‘If you look at McDowell County back in 1980, it had a younger population than Washington, DC. It was one of the younger counties in the country,’ Lombard said. ‘Today, the median age there is 44, and in Washington, DC it is 34. It’s growing far older than DC just by losing so many young adults.’

The 1980s marked the beginning of the end for coal in West Virginia and other producing states. Jobs in the industry steadily declined throughout the Clinton and Obama administrations as well.

A home that burned to the ground in Boone County and was never rebuilt

Hamilton Lombard, the lead demographer with the Cooper Center, told the Daily Mail that ‘the prognosis is fairly grim’ for much of West Virginia over the next 15 years

Downtown Logan in West Virginia was built from the coal industry but has been losing its population

Coal production in West Virginia was cut in half from 2008 to 2016, largely because natural gas became far cheaper.

Another sign of how much things have soured in McDowell County is its life expectancy, which was 66.3 years as of 2021. That’s a full 12 years shorter than the national average of 78.4 years.

Lombard noted that McDowell County’s life expectancy is on par with several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Rwanda, Eritrea and Ethiopia.

It’s not all bad for West Virginia though, with some places actually having a bit of a rebound thanks to economic and workforce changes spurred on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Five years ago, all seven coalfield counties, including McDowell, had more people moving out than coming in. Today, that’s only true of two of them.

Lombard says people who work remotely are moving to these traditionally downtrodden areas for cheaper housing.

‘People have looked at some of these rural areas a lot more closely and realized, if you want to live in McDowell County, you can buy a house for $50,000…and these are not homes that need to be gutted. They’re very, very livable,’ he said.

McDowell County and areas like it, despite having homes that cheap, are still not doing enough to attract those with hybrid or remote schedules, Lombard said.

A man waits for his meal in this August 2022 file photo at the Sterling Drive-In in Welch, West Virginia. Welch is the county seat of McDowell County

The areas benefiting the most from white collar transplants are Tucker County, south of Pittsburgh, and eastern West Virginia, which is close to Washington, DC.

‘It’s been so different since 2020, and continues to be so different. I think there’s a lot more hope for at least some of these communities. I wouldn’t say all of them,’ Lombard said.

‘On one hand, the prognosis is fairly grim. But if you look at the last couple years, it seems like some solutions have come up that just weren’t obvious before 2020 on how they can turn themselves around,’ he added.