Progress with Iran can only be achieved ‘by force,’ expert warns
President Trump has hinted at the possibility of a forthcoming peace agreement with Iran, suggesting that the Supreme Leader of Iran has given his approval and that the United States is poised to lift existing blockades. However, skepticism remains, particularly from Rebecca Heinrichs, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. Heinrichs has voiced concerns, noting Iran’s persistent aggressive actions in the Strait of Hormuz and its ongoing nuclear ambitions.
Further complicating the geopolitical landscape, reports have surfaced about the United States potentially reducing its fighter jet presence in Europe. Heinrichs questions the prudence of this move, especially amid rising tensions with Russia, suggesting that the timing is less than ideal.
In response to escalating threats, the U.S. has taken action against new provocations in the Middle East. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have recently threatened to block another crucial waterway, the Red Sea, declaring a ban on Israeli-owned vessels and labeling them as “legitimate targets.”
The significance of the Red Sea has grown, particularly its narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, as it serves as the primary route for oil transported from the Middle East to Asia. This shift has occurred due to the reduced functionality of the Strait of Hormuz, which was formerly the main channel for shipping navigation.
Meanwhile, amid Houthi strikes on shipping routes near Sana’a, Yemen, demonstrators at a rally supporting Palestinians were seen trampling over British and U.S. flags on February 4, 2024, highlighting the region’s ongoing tensions. (Image: Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images)
Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree posted on Monday, “We declare a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea, and we consider all enemy movements to be legitimate targets.”
In a statement to News Media, a State Department spokesperson struck back: “The escalatory actions of Iran and their Houthi proxies are unacceptable. These dangerous actions only serve to further enflame tensions and further disrupt global supply chains. We will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.”Â
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told News Media, “The Houthis have indeed risen to the challenge, at least verbally. In common with much ‘Axis of Resistance’ rhetoric at present, the intention appears to be to leverage US political nervousness and market volatility, and to drive a wedge between the Americans and the Israelis.”
An aerial view of The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a sea route connecting the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2021)
Fitton-Brown, a former U.K. ambassador to Yemen added, “Provided the allies keep talking to each other, the Israelis respond proportionately, as they have done, and the Iranians continue to provoke President Trump with actions like the downing of the helicopter, these tactics are unlikely to achieve significant success.”
“It will be interesting if the Houthis do go all in, and resume their campaign against Red Sea shipping with full intensity,” Fitton-Brown said, adding, “This will draw international anger and likely result in Israeli and U.S. strikes on Sanaa and Hodeida. There is potential for a general escalation if this happens, albeit one in which the allies have a clear military advantage.”
A huge column of fire erupts in the Yemeni rebel-held port city of Hodeida following reported strikes on July 20, 2024. The strikes targeted a fuel depot in the port, according to Houthi-run media and an AFP correspondent.
Landlocked Ethiopia acts as regional anti-terrorism buffer
Such actions come as reports emerge that Ethiopia, the Red Sea region’s most populous country, is stepping up as a major U.S. ally against Islamic terrorism.
While landlocked, Ethiopia has a population of some 130 million, making it the largest nation in the Horn of Africa. Located near parts of the Red Sea corridor, the country is roughly 60% Christian, according to a recent report by the Association of Religion Data Archives.
World Data Locator Map, Ethiopia. (Encyclopedia Britannica/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
And despite it being landlocked, Ethiopian researcher Blen M. Diriba told News Media that the country acts as a strategic roadblock or “a keystone state” on the Islamist expansionist ‘highway’ that has formed all the way from  Iran to Sudan.
Diriba, executive director of the Horn Review — an Addis Ababa-based research and publication think tank — told News Media that “Ethiopia, long a frontline U.S. security partner, now sits at the center of an expanding pressure zone where maritime disruption, insurgent violence, terrorist threats, and proxy competition converge.”
Diriba added. “Iran’s Bab el-Mandeb threat transforms the Horn of Africa into a militarized frontline, placing Ethiopia at the center of a chokepoint crisis. With Iranian influence radiating through conflict ecosystems in Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia, the region is beginning to resemble a continuous arc of instability stretching from the Arabian Peninsula into East Africa.”
“Ethiopia sits at the center of one of the world’s most combustible security corridors,” Diriba continued. “And in strategic terms, its relevance to the United States is amplified, not diminished, by that reality: From the Red Sea disruptions driven by the Houthis to the persistent insurgency threat of al-Shabab in Somalia, Ethiopia functions as a massive inland security buffer whose stability directly shapes whether these threats expand or are contained.”
Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade during the 116th celebration of Ethiopian Defense Force day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on Oct.26, 2023. (Amanuel Sileshi/AFP via Getty images)
But in addition to being pro-U.S., Ethiopia also has relations with Iran.
Fitton-Brown believes to some extent Ethiopia can be accused of playing both sides, as he said Tehran “has helped Ethiopia with its internal conflicts, giving drone support and military aid to the Ethiopian government during the recent Tigray War.”
He added, “There is a new memorandum of understanding built upon that basis, with Iran gaining influence in Ethiopia, while Ethiopia receives military, police and intelligence support to counter its domestic ethnic insurgencies.”
 However, Diriba said, “Ethiopia’s engagement with Iran is neither affinity nor alignment, it’s strategic awareness: keeping channels open to engage where necessary, cooperate selectively, and strategically manage its relations with a complex regional actor, while firmly anchoring its core partnerships with its emerging and long-standing partners — the United States being on the top of that list.”
A drone view shows vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, May 25, 2026. (Stringer TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY via Reuters)
“Ethiopia has pursued a flexible multi-alignment strategy, Diriba said, “prioritizing its entrenched security partnership with Washington while keeping open channels with Tehran to preserve diplomatic room to maneuver in an increasingly fragmented Horn of Africa–Red Sea order.”
Fitton-Brown said relations between the U.S. and Ethiopia “are good, especially in the field of counterterrorism. Both countries use Somaliland to their advantage without having gone so far as to recognize it as an independent state.”
News Media reached out to both the Department of War and the Ethiopian government for comment, but received no response by the time of publication.
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