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Warm water from deep within the ocean is anticipated to rise to the surface in the coming months, heightening the probability of an El Niño event.
According to the bureau, the majority of global forecasting models predict that these conditions will materialize between late autumn and late winter, potentially extending into the latter half of the year.
While some models are even hinting at the possibility of a strong or super El Niño, it’s important to note that this doesn’t necessarily equate to a stronger impact on Australia’s weather patterns.
An El Niño system forms when warmer-than-usual water is present at the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, while cooler water remains at the surface in the western tropical Pacific.
These variations in water surface temperatures influence atmospheric wind and pressure patterns, leading to diminished cloud cover and reduced rainfall in certain regions of the country.
The forecast comes as the Bureau of Meteorology declared that the La Niña season ended on March 31.
Despite bringing flooding in multiple states, the Bureau of Meteorology described the most recent La Niña episode as “relatively weak” due to the lack of wet weather it brought to some parts of the country.
“This is a good reminder that no two La Niña events are the same and their impacts can vary considerably from one La Niña to the next.”
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