Schools and parents are anxiously awaiting the impacts of President Trump’s tariff war, fearing the worst for a spike in the cost of food and school supplies. 

The situation is fluid, with the president putting a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries but keeping a 10 percent flat rate for most foreign products for now. On imports from China, the trade war has already escalated to 145 percent tariffs.

The unpredictability war is putting school officials and parents in a tough spot as the market fluctuates and economic uncertainty looms. 

“It definitely will impact school districts and states in a number of different ways,” said Karl Rectanus, a former educator and administrator, pointing to everything from the cost of food for students to upgrades for technology that most schools bought five years ago during the pandemic.  

Trump, who has long argued the global markets treat the U.S. “very unfairly,” began the process of instituting tariffs hours after taking office in January, signing an executive order to set 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico.

In the coming weeks, he announced and paused a slew of other tariffs, including on America’s closest trading partners. While the markets have not responded kindly, the White House insists the tariffs are bringing recalcitrant nations to the bargaining table.

The struggle for schools is whether to jump and buy things now if they believe the economic situation will get worse or wait in the hopes it gets better.  

“Let’s take, for example, technology budgets. You know, should [schools] be refreshing? Should we buy quickly? Should we wait? What is the tariff? Is it going to be 145 percent or is it going to be paused? Impossible to tell. So, there’s a lot of confusion and lack of clarity on what they should do,” Rectanus said.  

“Ninety percent of school districts’ budgets go to capital expenditures, that is, schools’ transportation and educator salaries. The other 10 percent is where they have to pay for curriculum and everything else: food bills, content, materials, etc. And so, they will look to offset costs in those other areas,” he added.  

This past week, the markets fell again after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predicted slower growth and higher prices throughout the rest of the year due to the tariff policies. Powell’s predictions have angered Trump, who has threatened to fire him in a move the central bank head argues would be illegal.  

The battles are not only causing worry for schools but also the firms from which they typically buy.  

“Companies, for instance, that are either sellers or retailers of products that are imported from China, the price changes and tariff changes over the past couple months have really led to uncertainty on what the actual end cost for the schools are,” said Sara Kloek, vice president of education and children’s policy at SIIA, an information and technology company. 

“So it’s hard to get even a firm price when they are bringing in products from overseas,” she added, not even just for technology but for “paper or even pencils and crayons.” 

And the economic uncertainty is only one of several kinds that schools are facing as Trump looks to implement a broad swath of education reforms, including ultimately shuttering the federal Education Department.

It is also unclear how long high prices could last, potentially impacting summer schooling and back-to-school shopping in the fall.  

“We don’t know if that box of crayons is going to be more expensive in Target in August and September, when parents are purchasing those,” Kloek said. “I think there are students that are going to be in school over the summer […] So if the schools or parents need to purchase supplies and the prices have increased, or they need to buy things that are directly impacted by tariffs in place today, they will probably be more expensive.”