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The eagerly anticipated cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients, initially planned for release on Wednesday, has faced delays due to the current government shutdown.
WASHINGTON — The new date for announcing the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits has been officially set.
Originally scheduled for Wednesday, October 15, the announcement was postponed as it coincided with the September Consumer Price Index report, which was also affected by the shutdown.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the inflation report for September 2025 will now be published on October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government service,” the agency said in the notice. “This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.”
The annual COLA announcement will reveal how much money retirees will receive on their checks every month starting in January 2026.
Almost 75 million people — including retirees, disabled people and children — receive Social Security benefits, according to the latest data.
How is COLA calculated each year?
The annual COLA is based on the average annual increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July through September. The September inflation report was delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Without the September numbers, the Social Security Administration cannot calculate an accurate COLA for the following year.
In recent years, there have been calls for the agency to calculate the COLA with a different index, the CPI-E, which measures price changes based on the spending patterns of the elderly, like health care, food and medicine costs.
How much will the 2026 cost-of-living increase be?
While we won’t know the exact percentage until Oct. 24, an advocacy group for seniors predicts the COLA for 2026 will be 2.7%.
The Senior Citizens League provides an updated prediction on the COLA each month, using data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners. The prediction model also uses the national unemployment rate and the Federal Reserve interest rates.
September’s numbers will be crucial to determining the COLA for the following year.
“Seniors across America are holding their breath as we wait for the official COLA announcement in October,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a September statement. “Our research shows 39 percent of seniors depend on their benefits for all their income, so the COLA announcement has a direct effect on their quality of life.”
If a 2.7% COLA stands, the average recipient can expect to receive more than $50 more each month starting in January.
Last year, the COLA was 2.5%.
The most significant increase seen in the last decade was in 2023, when the COLA was 8.7%, the highest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. In the previous 20 years, the COLA has averaged 2.6%.
