GOP Insiders Fear the White House Is Starting to Unravel

My latest Daily Mail column sparked an immediate backlash.

Last week, I reported that the midterm prospects for Republicans appeared to be worsening with fewer than 40 days remaining before the election. That assessment was based on conversations with Republican officeholders, candidates and strategists, including several committed MAGA supporters.

The story quickly went viral, helped by a series of posts on X that drew more than 6 million views.

On Friday, I wrote on X: ‘As of now, I’ve heard from 17 additional Republican strategists and all of them confirm what I’ve been told is accurate… and none have contacted me to complain or dispute my reporting.’

Several hours later, Chris LaCivita, who served as co-manager of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, answered.

‘I have received 18 calls all saying the same thing,’ he wrote. ‘@MarkHalperin is full of s**t.’

Apparently, my offense was saying aloud what many Republicans already recognize. I have yet to be persuaded that I was wrong. I am neither an oracle nor a fortune teller—only a journalist and analyst. My assessment of the GOP’s electoral position is not drawn from public polling, which many voters understandably distrust. Nor am I presenting a hunch or claiming to know exactly what will happen.

I am reporting what I have heard from scores of Republican strategists and candidates working on midterm races nationwide. They have access to sophisticated private polling, along with extensive qualitative and quantitative data—and much of that information has left them deeply pessimistic.

Perhaps Senator Susan Collins will prevail in Maine. Perhaps Republicans will retain their seats in Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio—and even Texas.

It is also possible that Donald Trump will spend the final stretch doing what few politicians have done better in modern times: dominating the news cycle, energizing his supporters and transforming the election into a referendum on the Democratic Party’s unpopular positions.

Republican advertising, opposition research and turnout operations could still descend on Democratic candidates with overwhelming force.

Maybe.

I know serious Republicans who consider every one of those outcomes plausible. And I say that as someone who has argued for more than a decade that Trump is, behind Bill Clinton, the most talented political athlete of the past 40 years. Anyone who underestimates his endurance, instincts or willingness to attempt virtually anything does so at considerable risk.

Still, after watching the latest sequence of events, I detect a different pattern.

The machinery of the White House appears to be coming loose as Republicans confront the possibility of a sweeping Democratic wave.

That shift is not the result of a sudden burst of brilliance from Democratic leaders. Rather, it reflects a punishing combination for any governing party heading into a midterm: unpopular wars and persistently high prices.

Voters do not need a policy briefing to know that groceries, gasoline and electricity have become too expensive. In midterm elections, they generally hold the president and his party responsible.

Trump’s job-approval ratings are deeply troubling, with particularly sharp declines among young men, women, Hispanics and independents. These are not marginal constituencies; they include many of the voters who helped deliver Trump victory in 2024.

The electoral map adds another layer of danger. Republicans are not simply defending vulnerable seats in familiar battlegrounds. They are now being forced to protect territory where a GOP candidate should normally be able to campaign with little concern—including Florida and Kansas.

Every dollar spent and presidential visit expended plugging a leak in a red state is a resource lost.

Trump is now even reportedly considering holding a rally in Alabama.

Alabama!

This is the political equivalent of sending Barack Obama to Vermont in the homestretch.

The White House’s recent attempt to ban CNN, Politico and MS NOW from its grounds was another spectacular own goal. A Trump-appointed judge ordered the administration to restore access, finding the ban likely unconstitutional. The episode accomplished nothing except generating days of negative coverage, uniting major news organizations (including Fox News) against the White House and making the president look distracted and vindictive.

Now, Republican candidates are beginning to distance themselves from Trump, which produces damaging headlines and raises the obvious question of whether the president will tolerate their disloyalty, even when it is necessary for the party’s survival.

On Saturday evening, we got our answer.

The President reposted more than a dozen Truth Social posts criticizing Florida Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban-American three-term incumbent, who finds herself in a tight race against her Democratic opponent in a district that Trump carried by 15 percentage points in 2024.

She dramatically broke with the administration last week, accusing the President’s deportation policy of ‘going too far’ and alienating hispanic voters.

No doubt, Salazar, a 20-year fixture in her South Florida community, identified immigration policy as a political vulnerability and moved to address it.

One of the messages amplified by Trump on Saturday read: ‘We need a NEW Republican to replace Salazar.’

The President’s behavior suggests that he’d rather hurt Salazar’s electoral chances and potentially sacrifice another Republican seat in Congress than accept her criticism.

It’s just another move from this White House that is maddening to the Republicans I speak to, including some from districts similar to Salazar’s, which, only weeks ago, were presumed to be safely in GOP hands.

Meanwhile, Republicans are grumbling that Trump’s political operation may be sitting on too much of its enormous cash reserves, instead of spending whatever it takes to save endangered candidates.

The party does have a substantial financial advantage and that could matter enormously. But money in a bank account does not persuade a single voter.

Abroad, the White House appears to be searching for the kind of breakthrough that could change the subject. Though, a last-minute agreement with Iran looks more like a mirage than a plan.

The Washington summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping may have produced grand ceremony, flattering photographs and sweeping presidential adjectives. But what is far less clear is how it lowers gas prices and makes voters feel better.

There are larger economic dangers as well. Interest rates, the bond market, the exploding debt and deficit and the vast sums of money pouring into artificial intelligence should worry anyone aware of how quickly economic confidence can vanish.

Trump’s full-speed embrace of AI and giant data centers may prove visionary. It may also become a symbol of an administration that is more interested in billionaires and machines than families staring at another ugly utility bill.

None of this means Republicans are doomed. Trump has escaped more tight situations than MacGruber. Democrats remain fully capable of overreaching, choking in debates and frightening away persuadable voters.

But the burden of proof has shifted. Republicans now need nearly everything to go right, while Democrats need economic conditions to stay the same or deteriorate.

At the moment, the prospects for improvement in the next few weeks are dim.

And the President, in the view of many of his long-time supporters in Republican politics, does not appear to be doing much of anything to help the cause.