DETROIT (AP) — As winter approaches, chilly gusts are making their way across the Great Lakes, setting the stage for significant lake-effect snowfall from Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to the stretches of Western New York.

On Wednesday, snow began to blanket the area surrounding Houghton, Michigan, with forecasts predicting it will persist through Thanksgiving and linger into the weekend. A blizzard warning is in effect until Thursday morning for the Keweenaw Peninsula, where Houghton is situated, as reported by the National Weather Service.

“The incoming system is indeed generating some snow,” explained Steve Considine, a meteorologist stationed at the National Weather Service in White Lake Township, just northwest of Detroit. “The most substantial snowfalls are expected in the snowbelt regions, influenced by the Great Lakes — those are the areas preparing for significant accumulation.”

Additionally, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan faces a blizzard warning, anticipating heavy snow accompanied by strong winds. Considine noted that the northern Upper Peninsula might witness snow pile-ups ranging from one to three feet (approximately 0.3 to 0.9 meters), predominantly due to lake-effect conditions.

So, what exactly triggers lake-effect snow?

It typically starts north of the U.S. border

When cold air, often from Canada, blows over the Great Lakes it can spell weather trouble for Michigan, Ohio, New York and other states in the region.

Warming air from the lakes pushes the moisture in the sky higher into a zone most conducive to snowfall because of its temperature. Clouds capable of dumping heavy precipitation downwind then form.

“You need open water on the Great Lakes, preferably fairly warm water temperatures in the 40s,” Considine said.

Most of the moisture needed for lake-effect snow does not actually come from the lakes, but rather from cold air that blows over them. Add a fairly stationary wind direction and the right conditions can be created for heavy snowfall.

Temperatures Wednesday night in Houghton were expected to dip into the low 20 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) and are forecast to remain below freezing through Saturday.

Amount of snowfall can vary

From that typically comes thin bands of clouds that can produce heavy snowfall — 2 to 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) per hour and sometimes more. Because the bands are narrow, snowfall can vary from place to place.

The Kalkaska area in Michigan’s northwest Lower Peninsula possibly could see more than a foot (.30 meters) of snow. However, Grand Rapids, Michigan, which is just east of Lake Michigan, could see 2 to 5 inches (5 to 12 centimeters) inches of snow, while nearby Kalamazoo may get 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters).

Lake-effect snow from the current storm system moving through Michigan “loses its intensity as it pulls away from Lake Michigan,” Considine said.

Buffalo “king” of lake-effect snow

Other very large lakes, including the Great Salt Lake in Utah, can experience lake-effect snow, but its fury is more common along Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario.

Communities off of Lakes Erie and Ontario, to the east, could get walloped by the current storm system. A wide stretch of western New York already is under a lake-effect snow warning.

Buffalo’s temperature was expected to dip into the low 30s Wednesday night, according to the weather service and remain in the 30s through Saturday.

A foot to 18-inches (30 to 46 centimeters) of snow is forecast south of Buffalo, while 6 to 10 inches (15 to 25 centimeters) could fall near Watertown, New York, Considine said.

“There have been some really big events in the Buffalo area,” Considine said. “Buffalo is really the king of lake-effect. They get the band coming off Lake Erie. It’s shallow and relatively warm at the first part of winter.”

Lake-effect storms dumped more than 6 feet (1.8 meters) of snow in western New York in November 2022. The wintry storms were the worst in New York since at least November 2014, when some communities south of Buffalo were hit with 7 feet (2.1 meters) of snow over the course of three days, collapsing roofs and trapping drivers on a stretch of the New York State Thruway.