Groundhog Day 2026: Will Punxsutawney Phil Predict an Extended Winter?

PENNSYLVANIA, USA — After a recent blast of arctic air and an extensive winter storm swept across the United States, covering vast areas with ice and snow, many are eagerly hoping for an early reprieve from winter’s grip.

But will Punxsutawney Phil, the famed weather-predicting groundhog, fulfill our hopes this year?

This quirky tradition, involving the Pennsylvania groundhog, has been a staple in western Pennsylvania for over a century. Its origins are steeped in European folklore, but it was the 1993 film “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray, that catapulted the event into a cultural phenomenon, attracting tens of thousands to the celebration and spawning imitators across the globe.

Each year, on this festive day, crowds assemble at Gobbler’s Knob. Members of Phil’s “inner circle” ceremoniously draw the groundhog from his burrow at dawn, anxiously awaiting whether he will see his shadow and extend winter’s stay.

According to folklore, if he sees his shadow there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, spring comes early.

The “inner circle” is a group of local dignitaries who are responsible for planning the events, as well as feeding and caring for Phil himself.

The annual event in Punxsutawney, about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, originated from a German legend about a furry rodent.

Groundhog Day always falls on Feb. 2. This year, Groundhog Day falls on a Monday. 

Since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil’s track record has leaned heavily toward six more weeks of winter. 

In fact, arguably the world’s most famous groundhog has predicted an early spring by not seeing his shadow only 21 times, including in 2024, according to the numbers announced by the Groundhog Day inner circle.

Meanwhile, he has seen his shadow 109 times, including in 2025, though there are nine years where there’s no record of what happened. 

Prior to 2024, the last time Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow was in 2020, and before that in 2019, offering a back-to-back dose of his rare early spring prediction.

Will we get another back-to-back early spring prediction this year? Check back Monday to find out. 

Last year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration compared Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast to the national weather the prior 10 years and found “on average, Phil has gotten it right 30% of the time.” Over the past 20 years, NOAA found Phil was 35% correct but still a lot less accurate than some of his groundhog competitors. 

Going back all the way to his first prediction in 1887, his record is right only slightly better (but still worse than a coin flip) 39% of the time, according to an analysis from Stormfax Weather Almanac. 

The Associated Press and TEGNA stations have contributed to this report.