As the Iranian regime reels from sustained Israeli strikes on military and nuclear infrastructure, debate is intensifying over what could come next.

Experts say the end of the Islamic Republic is no longer unthinkable — but warn that what replaces it could either lift the country toward a freer future or plunge it into instability.

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, posted yesterday, “Sources inside Iran say that the regime’s command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun.”

“The first thing is revolution is too broad a word,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The better words are evolution and devolution, meaning if you get something better or something worse. Because this is the Middle East, and fundamentally, things can get worse, not better, when you introduce an exogenous shock.”

Taleblu agreed, warning that survival would bring an even more repressive future. “If the Islamic Republic survives, it will survive in a more radical fashion—more military, less clergy,” he said. “There’s debate: does it become like Turkey or Pakistan, or does it become even more messianic? The older IRGC are corrupt; the younger ones are messianic.”

One of the most contentious questions looming over all these scenarios is the future role of Iran’s non-Persian communities, including the Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds. Aref Al-Kaabi, executive president of the State of Ahwaz, told Fox News Digital in a written statement that without trust-building between these communities and the Persian opposition, change will remain elusive.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the media during the voting of parliament elections in Tehran, Iran, on May 10, 2024. (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“In my opinion, regime change in Iran is possible if the following conditions are met: continued Israeli strikes… support for non-Persian components… international will… and bridges of trust between Arabs, Kurds, Baloch, Azeris, and the Persian opposition,” Al-Kaabi said. “If these conditions are met, I believe the regime’s fall will only be a matter of days.”

He said that in recent days, the IRGC launched widespread arrests in Ahwaz to prevent mobilization. “Most of those arrested are Arabs from Abadan, Bushehr, Sheyban, and Shoaibiya,” he said.

Al-Kaabi also criticized the Persian opposition abroad. “They view us—Arabs, Kurds, Azeris, Baloch—as separatists and refuse to work with us. That stubbornness is one of the main reasons the regime is still in power.”

Taleblu warned against Western attempts to divide the country. “The way to unite the Iranian population is not to talk about balkanization,” he said. “That would be an own goal of moral and strategic proportions.”