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The outcome of St. John’s first-round NCAA Tournament clash against 12th-seeded Northern Iowa on Friday could hinge significantly on the pace of play.
As the champions of the Missouri Valley Conference, Northern Iowa, who ended the regular season ranked sixth in this competitive mid-major league, is known for its deliberate playing style.
They tend to shy away from pursuing offensive rebounds and excel at keeping their opponents’ scoring to a minimum, leading the nation by allowing just 61.3 points per game. In stark contrast, the fifth-seeded St. John’s thrives on their ability to force turnovers and apply defensive pressure, particularly excelling in fast-paced transitions.
This contrast in styles sets the stage for a compelling showdown.
“The tempo is the crucial factor,” noted a Division I assistant coach with experience against Northern Iowa and familiarity with St. John’s during a phone conversation. “If the game slows down to a possession-focused battle, Northern Iowa gains the upper hand, as they can execute their strategies and find clearer shots. They’re not built to rally from deficits.”
“They want it to be a back-and-forth game at a slower tempo.”
Led by longtime coach Ben Jacobson, the Panthers play a pack-line defense, the same system made famous at Virginia by Tony Bennett. They pack the paint and look to cut off driving lanes, daring the opposition to beat them from the perimeter. Northern Iowa is still third nationally in 3-point defense (28.9 percent). The Panthers are small — their tallest starter is 6-foot-8 forward Will Hornseth.
“Defensively, they’re really good at not necessarily turning you over, but making it really, really hard on you by packing the paint and forcing you to try and make jump shots,” the coach said. “People fall into the trap with pack-line defenses like they run, of thinking the right read is to kick out and shoot jumpers. If you’re not making them, you’re still thinking that’s the right read, and you can struggle with it.
“Just reading the closeouts is important. If they’re going to close out and still contest, having cutters and having Zuby [Ejiofor] in the paint or Zuby in the dunker, and just being able to finish plays at the rim because the reality is there’s not real shot-blockers in there.”
Northern Iowa is not nearly as strong on the other end of the floor. The Panthers rank 153rd in offensive efficiency and 278th in free-throw percentage (69.7), and they rarely go to the free-throw line, attempting 14.1 per game. Only Niagara gets to the line less. Northern Iowa’s leading scorer is senior guard Trey Campbell, who averages 13.7 points and was an All-Missouri Valley second-team selection.
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Northern Iowa has faced two teams that made the NCAA Tournament, losing to Saint Mary’s and topping Furman. The Panthers didn’t play a single power-conference opponent. They haven’t seen athleticism like St. John’s possesses.
“I just think St. John’s can physically overpower them, whether it’s throwing the ball into the paint — and I would assume Northern Iowa is going to be forced to double-team Zuby — and whether he’s scoring or making plays out of that,” the coach said.
“Then also attacking the offensive glass and overpowering them with length and athleticism. I think they’re susceptible to that.
“The way that St. John’s wants to play, getting up in you and pressuring the ball and making it hard for you to run your actions, I find it hard to believe that Northern Iowa has the type of players that can just break things off and go get a basket against the length and athleticism St. John’s has.”