A potential tropical storm is developing just off the US Gulf Coast as flood alerts remain in effect for millions of people across three nearby states.
Forecasters say a broad area of low pressure south of Texas has a strong chance of organizing into Tropical Storm Isaias later this week.
AccuWeather forecasts the system could affect Gulf states including Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida. Its rain and thunderstorms may also extend into Georgia, the Carolinas and areas farther north, bringing a risk of flooding.
Moisture rising from the Gulf of America is already fueling storms across the United States, prompting the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue flood watches on Monday.
More than four million people in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Georgia have been warned that several inches of rain could fall through Monday evening, creating the potential for dangerous flash flooding.
Northern Florida could receive as much as eight inches of rain from Monday through Wednesday, before the Gulf system potentially develops into Isaias.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently places the chance of a tropical cyclone forming this week at 70 percent. AccuWeather expects development could occur between Wednesday and Friday.
If it develops, the system would be the first tropical storm to affect the US mainland since Edouard made landfall along the Gulf Coast on September 1.
The Florida Panhandle is under a flood watch this week as a tropical system develops in the Gulf (File Image)
Forecasters say Tropical Storm Isaias could form as early as Wednesday, October 7
Boats operating off the Florida coast near Tallahassee were also issued urgent warnings on Monday morning, with forecasters alerting mariners to the possibility of tornado-like waterspouts developing in the Gulf during the day’s severe storms.
The NWS said: ‘Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor immediately.’
No hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf this year. Should Isaias strengthen into a hurricane, it would set a record for the latest date on which the season’s first hurricane developed.
Forecasters nevertheless consider it highly unlikely that the system will intensify that far.
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AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said in a statement: ‘The waters across the Gulf of America are very warm, but stronger wind shear farther north across the Gulf may limit development potential.’
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Monday that the heaviest effects as the system approaches the US coast are likely in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.
Rainfall totals of up to eight inches are forecast between Saturday and Sunday, while the worst-case scenario could bring as much as 14 inches.
The weather service said that even if the Gulf disturbance does not become a named tropical storm, it could still drive heavy, flooding rain as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
If Isaias forms, it could be the first tropical cyclone to affect the US mainland since Edouard struck parts of Texas in early September (Pictured)
Heavy rain and flooding are expected this week across northern Florida, Alabama and Georgia
Isaias is expected to bring additional rain and flooding to as many as 16 US states this weekend
AccuWeather expects that the storm will wreak havoc on travel across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey between Saturday and next Monday.
There are only two years on record in which a hurricane failed to develop in the Atlantic, 1907 and 1914.
The historic downturn in hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year has been fueled by the impact of a ‘super El Niño’ on the other side of the US.
El Niño is the widely used name for a natural weather phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become abnormally warm. The current El Niño is expected to be one of the warmest in recorded history.
This flips weather patterns around the globe, causing the normally chaotic hurricane season along the US East Coast to fizzle before storms have a chance to grow.
Tropical cyclones need two major factors to play in their favor in order to grow from tropical depressions to tropical storms to hurricanes – warm water for fuel and less wind shear cutting apart their structures.
Although there have been eight cyclones which made it tropical storm status this year, meaning their winds were between 39 and 73mph, strong wind shear aided by El Niño hindered all of these storms from becoming hurricanes.