An asteroid known as a ‘city-killer’, previously deemed a hazard to Earth, now appears to have a higher probability of colliding with the Moon in 2032 instead.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile.

Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. 

In February, after recent observations from Earth, the likelihood of the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, impacting Earth decreased significantly, leading to the reassessment that it no longer poses a danger to our planet.

The global astronomy community is monitoring the movement of asteroid 2024 YR4 closely. Unfortunately, this asteroid will not be observable through ground-based telescopes until 2028, so its trajectory and potential impact remain uncertain until then.

In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope’s (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4.

JWST data, along with expert analysis from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid’s orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%.

In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%.

However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions. 

Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb’s view for now.