Just six months after the Trump administration said it would begin drawing down U.S. forces in Syria, the U.S. confirmed this week it will also begin reducing the number of U.S. forces in Iraq under an agreement reached by the Biden administration – a move security experts warn could benefit Iran and its “shadow empire.”  

Just six months after the Trump administration announced plans to draw down U.S. forces in Syria, the Biden administration confirmed this week it will also reduce troop levels in Iraq under a new agreement – a move security experts warn could strengthen Iran and its “shadow empire.”

The changes have come amid a perceived reduction in threat from the terrorist network ISIS and a growing U.S. desire to end “forever wars.”

“They wield significant influence in the Iraqi government. They occupy a large, dominant block in the Iraqi parliament. And these militias also have economic power,” Roggio said. “Iran built these militia forces along the same lines as Hezbollah, and they essentially want them to ultimately become like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is in Iran.”

Both Roman and Roggio expressed concern over the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region and, more significantly, the removal of U.S. influence at a time when Iran is looking to heavily counter Washington and its interests. 

“We haven’t learned the lessons of Afghanistan and even the lessons of Iraq,” Roggio said. “I don’t care if we have 100 or 100,000 troops in Afghanistan or anywhere else. Do we have the right troops to achieve the mission that we put out for them? 

“We talk about numbers of troops. … We’re not really talking about what is our mission in Iraq? Is it a counter-ISIS mission? Is it a stave off Iranian influence mission? 

“And do we have the right mixture of military and diplomatic and political and economic influence in Iraq to achieve those goals? I don’t believe we do.”

U.S. forces provide military training to members of the YPG/SDF, which Turkey considers an extension of PKK in Syria, in the Qamisli district in the Al-Hasakah province, Syria, Aug. 18, 2023.  (Hedil Amir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Both experts pointed out that the U.S. has a long history of not taking Iran and the threat it poses seriously enough, a problem that has spanned decades across both Republican and Democratic administrations. 

“The Iranians are patient. They’re operating on timeframes of decades and generations. And we aren’t patient. We operate in timeframes and two and four-year election cycles,” Roggio said. “Ultimately, Iran is looking to drive the U.S. from the region and expand its influence in neighboring countries, be it Afghanistan, be it Iraq, be it the Gulf states.

“The ultimate goal is to get the U.S. out so it can expand its influence.”