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Mark Dubowitz says Trump holds ‘maximum leverage’ over Iran as ceasefire begins
Mark Dubowitz, who leads the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, offers an analysis of President Trump’s assertive stance on Iran following a recently brokered two-week ceasefire. He emphasizes how Iran’s position has been considerably weakened after 15 months under Trump’s leadership, making it unlikely that Iran’s ambitious 10-point peace proposal will gain acceptance. Dubowitz delves into the potential paths available to Iran’s newly formed government.
The absence of a temporary pause in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah seems to be a significant stumbling block for Iran’s leadership as the ceasefire agreement is implemented.
Although the Trump administration asserts that the agreement does not involve Hezbollah, which is supported by Tehran, Iran is leveraging this exclusion as a strategic move against the U.S., with the potential to unravel the entire ceasefire agreement.
On Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, shared on social media platform X, stating, “The terms of the Iran–U.S. Ceasefire are straightforward: the U.S. must decide—either pursue a ceasefire or continue the conflict through Israel. It can’t have both. The international community is witnessing the tragedies in Lebanon. The decision now lies with the U.S., and the world is observing to see if it will uphold its commitments.”
In the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike targeting a densely populated area in southern Beirut, Lebanon, on Sunday, April 5, 2026, rescue teams are diligently searching for survivors. (Photo by Hussein Malla/AP)
His comments were later echoed by Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, citing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Earlier in the day, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a key intermediary in ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran over Operation Epic Fury, said the two-week ceasefire would include Lebanon.
Hezbollah reneged on a U.S. negotiated November 2024 ceasefire by entering the war against Israel on March 2025 to aid Iran. Many experts say long-term regional security depends on Lebanon’s government and army disarming the terror group.
Hezbollah al-Mahdi scouts parade with big portraits of Iran’s late leader Ayatollah Khomeini, foreground, and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, background, during an event for Jerusalem day or Al-Quds day, in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2013. The last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan is observed in many Muslim countries as Al-Quds day, as a way of expressing support to the Palestinians and emphasizing the importance of Jerusalem to Muslims. (Hussein Malla/AP)
Edy Cohen, an Israeli security expert on Hezbollah, who was born in Lebanon, told Fox News Digital that “Hezbollah will never disarm itself. From its perspective, it protects two million Shiites. The only way to defeat Hezbollah is to first define it as a terrorist organization. Not to allow its political wing to exist and also to order the Lebanese army to gather in the areas under its control area by area.”
He added that “Dismantling Hezbollah must be carried out in stages. The Lebanese government must first take possession of the heavy weapons. Not to allow it to concentrate except in Dahiya [a Beirut suburb that is a Hezbollah and Shiite stronghold]. Leave it in one place and control all the roads leading to it. Little by little, it can be dismantled. Israel cannot and should not disarm Hezbollah. It can only assist with bombing from above.”
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his Mar-a-Lago club on December 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
On Wednesday, the IDF said it hit over 100 targets in 10 minutes, including, “Hezbollah headquarters, military arrays, and command-and-control centers: Intelligence command centers and central headquarters used by Hezbollah terrorists for directing and planning terror attacks against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians.” Reuters, quoting the country’s health ministry, said some 91 people were killed in Beirut, with a total of at least 182 killed nationwide on Wednesday.
The IDF added, “The large-scale strike was based on precise IDF intelligence and was planned meticulously over weeks. Most of the infrastructure that was struck was located within the heart of the civilian population, as part of Hezbollah’s cynical exploitation of Lebanese civilians as human shields in order to safeguard its operations. Prior to the strikes, steps were taken to mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals as much as possible.”
Since the war started and before Wednesday’s attacks, Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 1,530 people in Lebanon, according to the Associated Press. The Long War Journal notes “that neither the Lebanese Health Ministry nor Hezbollah has provided an official count of the group’s fallen fighters.”
Hezbollah terrorists are shown in this image. A “terrorist network” funded and operated by Hezbollah and Iran has been foiled in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report. (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto)
Guila Fakhoury, whose father, Amer, was kidnapped by Hezbollah in 2019, told Fox News Digital that “Iran and the IRGC are occupying Lebanon through their proxy Hezbollah.”
Fakhoury, who was born in Lebanon, said, “The majority of Lebanese people believe the actions of Hezbollah caused Israel to occupy southern Lebanon and don’t want Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is threatening the entire government.”
A mourner holds a poster depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the U.S.-Israel campaign in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
As the president and co-founder of the Amer Foundation, an organization dedicated to help families of illegal detainees and educate on Middle East policy and geopolitics, she said is seeing some positive steps being taken including Lebanese President Joseph Aoun calling for negotiations with Israel.
She said the “only solution is to have peace with Israel. I think there a lot of Shiites who are against Hezbollah… The majority of the Lebanese people just want peace. We hope the Trump administration will push the Lebanese government and Israel’s government to start peace talks.”
Last week, Iran’s regime defied Lebanon’s expulsion order for its ambassador by saying he would stay, further increasing tensions in a country in the crosshairs of the latest fighting between the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
Lebanon had declared Ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani “persona non grata” to weaken Iran’s diplomatic presence and have a chargé d’affaires at its embassy instead. But the deadline to leave the country was Sunday and an Iranian spokesperson said the ambassador’s mission in Beirut continues.
Fox News Digital reached out to Lebanon’s government and the Embassy in Washington D.C. for a comment.