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With a distinctive hum reminiscent of a motorcycle, the Shahed-136 drone emerges on the horizon, representing Iran’s latest strategic asset. This kamikaze drone symbolizes the Iranian regime’s desperate bid to assert itself.
In a series of aggressive moves, Iran has deployed over 500 of these drones against nine neighboring nations. The unpredictable nature of these attacks has sown turmoil throughout the Middle East, highlighting the regime’s volatile approach.
The exact size of Iran’s drone fleet remains a mystery, known perhaps only to intelligence agencies like the CIA or Mossad. However, it is believed to be substantially larger than its limited stockpile of ballistic missiles and launchers.
Estimates suggest that Iran could possess as many as 80,000 attack drones, with the capacity to produce 400 additional units monthly. Each drone costs approximately $35,000, making them a cost-effective weapon of choice.
In stark contrast, the systems required to intercept these drones are vastly more expensive, with individual interceptors potentially costing millions of dollars, and their numbers are not unlimited.
With nothing to lose, and an almost endless supply, the regime may be able to use the drones to extend its existence, waging an asymmetric war of attrition in an attempt to draw the US into a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
As it goes on, the damage to the US and its allies may increase, experts warn.
Iran has thousands of kamikaze Shahed-136 drones in its arsenal and is unleashing them wildly across the Middle East
The UAE, for instance, is currently intercepting over 90 percent of incoming Iranian assaults, but that is likely to decrease over time.
‘A 92 percent intercept rate over a major civilian city is genuinely remarkable. But “effective” and “sustainable” are two different things,’ according to Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.
‘And the UAE isn’t alone in this math problem. The US faces it too – every Patriot battery defending a Gulf base, every naval interceptor fired from a destroyer, runs the same equation. Millions to stop thousands. At scale, the attacker’s economics win even when their weapons don’t.’
Others warned that Middle Eastern countries being targeted by Iran’s arsenal of Shahed drones could run out of interceptors within days.
‘The Ukrainians are the best in the world intercepting drones and missiles and they can run pretty short at times. It’s very unlikely most countries in the Middle East have the same depth of magazines for interceptors for these missiles,’ said Mick Ryan, a retired Army Major General and Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute.
‘So they’ve probably got a few days of stocks when it comes to being able to intercept these things with air defense missiles. They will need to also use fighter aircraft and helicopters. It really is a race against time.’
Dubai’s Fairmont The Palm hotel on fire after a drone strike
The Shahed drones have a range over 2,000km, can carry a 50kg warhead, and cruise at 115mph.
The Iranian regime has used them to lash out wildly, hitting a myriad of targets including the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, civilian airports in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, and damaging the iconic Burj Al Arab and Fairmont The Palm hotels in Dubai.
Drone strikes also set a fuel tanker on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil export route.
The prospect of weeks of haphazard Iranian drone strikes threatens to torpedo global travel and spike oil prices.
It is believed the drones, complete with target lists, are being fired autonomously by junior commanders as part of a plan the regime had in place to be triggered if its leaders were taken out.
After America and Israel’s Operation Epic Fury successfully killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other regime leaders on Saturday, the drone attacks began.
President Trump says waves of strikes on the Iranian regime will continue and ‘the bog one is coming’
Smoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the area where the US Embassy is located in Kuwait City on March 2
‘Iran should not be underestimated. As demonstrated in previous limited confrontations, particularly in missile warfare, Tehran possesses meaningful asymmetric capabilities,’ said Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
In countering them, each PAC-3 interceptor costs $4 million, and each THAAD interceptor costs around $15 million.
The US already used 150 THAAD interceptors during the 12-day war last summer, which was about 25 percent of its stockpile.
‘It could take years to replenish the stockpile, making the US vulnerable in conflicts in the near to mid-term,’ according to Crispin Burke, a cybersecurity and intelligence expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Shahed means ‘witness’ in Persian, and Iran began producing the drones in 2021.
Its stockpile may be running lower than believed after it sent thousands of the drones to Russia, which has been using them to bombard Ukrainian infrastructure including the power grid.
However, Vladimir Putin also began making his own version – calling it the Geran rather than Shahed – at the remote Alabuga SEZ factory, which is producing 18,540 a year, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
‘There is a possibility that Russia may be sending Shahed-type drones (back) to Iran’ said Anton Gerashchenko of the Institute of the Future. ‘Iran has already shown interest in Russia’s modified versions, such as Geran-3 and Geran-5, which are essentially inexpensive cruise missiles with improved speed up to 600 kmph and anti-jamming capabilities.’
He added: ‘Destroying the Russian factory that makes Shahed/Geran drones would be the right strategic decision.’
The Burj Al Arab suffered minor damage after an Iranian attack drone was intercepted overhead
By Monday ,Iran had fired 541 drones at the United Arab Emirates, 283 at Kuwait, 136 at Bahrain, and smaller numbers at Qatar and Jordan.
The US is seeking to save its more expensive weapons by using its own replica of the Shahed, which is called LUCAS (low-cost unmanned combat attack system).
The one-way LUCAS attack drones were used for the first time in combat as part of Operation Epic Fury.
A spokesman for US Central Command said: ‘These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran’s Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution.’
As it seeks to extend the war and drag the US deeper into conflict, Iran does face issues producing more Shahed drones.
A possible Shahed drone strike at the port in Abu Dhabi
A black plume of smoke rises from a warehouse at the industrial area of Sharjah City in the United Arab Emirates
Sanctions mean components for the drones, including gyroscopes and satellite navigation systems, have to be smuggled into the country.
An answer to defending against Shaheds may come out of Ukraine, where interceptors costing as little as $2,500 have been produced, along with advanced drone detection technology.
However, it will not be possible to protect everywhere across the Middle East, particularly given the Iranians decision to target civilian areas.
Every interceptor deployed to protect one base is one that cannot be used elsewhere. That leaves military planners stretching their resources across thousands of miles, and weaker protections in each location.