Iran’s Economy on the Brink: President Blames Foreign Influence amid Expert Warnings

Rising reports of Iranians resorting to stealing essentials like bread, cheese, and meat underscore the deepening economic crisis, placing immense strain on households across the nation.

In an article released Wednesday, the Iranian daily Jahan-e Sanat detailed instances where grocery store employees confronted customers allegedly hiding low-cost food or consuming products in-store without payment. While these incidents are individual experiences and not indicative of widespread food theft, experts suggest they mirror the rising strain from inflation, depreciating currency, and diminishing purchasing power.

“These accounts, though anecdotal, correspond with undeniable data,” said Miad Maleki, an associate fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in an interview with News Media.

Maleki observed, “Iran has entered a critical juncture. However, it’s not marked by a singular crisis; instead, it unfolds progressively with the currency collapsing, food prices soaring to wartime levels, and staples being pilfered. This sequence is leading to a dangerous threshold where a significant portion of the populace, extending beyond just the destitute, struggles to afford basic nutritional needs.”

The reports surfaced as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged that the country was facing “difficulties and problems,” while insisting during a televised address Wednesday that Iran remained powerful and respected.

“The enemy is exerting pressure in an attempt to provoke the people into protesting,” Pezeshkian said, according to an account of his Aug. 5 address published by Iran’s state-affiliated Press TV.

Maleki said worsening food insecurity could become a trigger for renewed demonstrations, pointing to Iran’s November 2019 protests following a sharp government-imposed increase in gasoline prices.

“The regime’s own history proves it, because its most dangerous moments have been economic, not ideological,” Maleki said.

He cautioned, however, that economic desperation would not necessarily produce immediate political change. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary forces have repeatedly demonstrated their willingness to suppress unrest rather than make significant economic concessions, he said.

A supermarket employee identified only as Amirhossein told Jahan-e Sanat that he had witnessed several suspected thefts during the previous 10 months. The employee described customers allegedly taking cheese, butter, cakes, pastries and meat, according to Iran International’s account of the newspaper investigation.

“I think poverty is the main reason,” the employee told the newspaper. “You cannot judge everyone the same way, but when someone steals a simple item, they are probably under enormous pressure.”

Maleki, a former Treasury Department sanctions official, said Iran’s annual food inflation reached between 112.5% and 113.8% in March 2026, with the prices of bread and cereals rising 140% and dairy products and eggs increasing 116.8%.

The Statistical Center of Iran data cited in separate reports showed point-to-point inflation of 113.8% for food and beverages and 112.5% for food items in March compared with the same month a year earlier. Bread and cereal prices increased 140%, while milk, cheese and egg prices rose 116.8%.

“While a single newspaper’s petty-crime roundup isn’t proof of imminent collapse, it’s a credible symptom layered on top of verified macro data,” Maleki said. “And when or if this conflict ends and market demand is not suppressed by a state of war, inflation will skyrocket even higher.”

Maleki said Iran’s currency crisis has intensified the pressure on households. The U.S. dollar reached approximately 1.5 million rials in January before surpassing 1.94 million rials on Iran’s open market in July amid renewed regional conflict.

The government’s response, Maleki said, has included issuing monthly cash credits worth approximately $7 at the open-market exchange rate after eliminating subsidized exchange rates for certain imports. He argued that removing those subsidies contributed to further price increases.

The critical threshold, he added, would come when access to basic nutrition deteriorates not only among Iran’s poorest citizens but across a large portion of the population.

The supermarket accounts do not prove that the Iranian government is on the verge of collapse. Maleki argues, however, that they provide an increasingly visible sign that the country’s economic crisis is affecting Iranians’ ability to afford basic necessities.