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Iran’s Leadership Puzzle: Who Holds Power as the Ayatollah Fades?

In a compelling episode of the Daily Mail’s Deep Dive podcast, host Chris Pleasance engaged with special correspondent David Patrikarakos to unravel the mystery surrounding Iran’s ‘invisible’ leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

On March 8, Mojtaba was declared Iran’s supreme leader, following a week after the tragic demise of his father, Ali Khamenei, during US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28.

Mojtaba was reportedly at the compound during the attack. Sources familiar with his entourage revealed to Reuters that the explosion caused severe facial injuries and critically injured one or both of his legs.

After his leadership was televised over five months ago, Mojtaba has remained out of the public eye. Although there was speculation he would appear, he was conspicuously absent from his father’s funeral on July 5, where three of his brothers were seen in attendance, offering prayers beside the coffin.

On the latest Deep Dive podcast, host Chris Pleasance was joined by special correspondent David Patrikarakos to ask what has become of Iran's 'invisible' Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei

In the latest Deep Dive podcast, host Chris Pleasance conversed with special correspondent David Patrikarakos, exploring the enigma of Iran’s elusive Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei

Patrikarakos, who has been speaking to Western intelligence sources, set out the three theories circulating about Mojtaba’s whereabouts.

‘The first theory is that Mojtaba is alive and well, and that he’s running the war from a bunker,’ he said.

‘This is the line Iranian officials are peddling. President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed recently that Mojtaba is on the mend.

‘This theory holds that Mojtaba survived the bombing of his family largely intact. I think we can dismiss this as nonsense. It’s clearly not the case.

‘The second is that Mojtaba has fled to Russia. Russia has a long and ignoble tradition of sheltering foreign psychopaths. Right now, the ostrich-necked tyrant Bashar al-Assad is in Moscow, apparently playing video games for hours on end.

‘I don’t believe this either. The Iranians don’t run. People said Khamenei might flee, I knew Khamenei would die in Iran. So, I think we can dismiss this as well.

‘The third theory is that he’s barely alive, possibly incapacitated and that his statements are actually being drafted by someone else. Most likely, Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard.

‘This makes the most sense: if he were dead, I think they’d probably just say it.’

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was founded after the 1979 revolution as an elite force loyal to the regime itself, separate from Iran’s regular army.

Since his accession to leader was announced on state television five and a half months ago, no one has seen hide nor hair of Mojtaba

Since his accession to leader was announced on state television five and a half months ago, no one has seen hide nor hair of Mojtaba

Patrikarakos, who has been speaking to Western intelligence sources, set out the three theories circulating about Mojtaba's whereabouts

Patrikarakos, who has been speaking to Western intelligence sources, set out the three theories circulating about Mojtaba’s whereabouts

Patrikarakos believes IRGC leader Ahmad Vahidi, whom he describes as a hardliner, is now the real power in Tehran

Patrikarakos believes IRGC leader Ahmad Vahidi, whom he describes as a hardliner, is now the real power in Tehran

It is now the most powerful institution in the country, controlling not just the military machine but vast swathes of the economy. It is the IRGC that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, attacking tankers and demanding fees from vessels attempting to pass through the world’s most important oil route.

Patrikarakos believes its leader Ahmad Vahidi, whom he describes as a hardliner, is now the real power in Tehran.

He said: ‘Vahidi is really important, he is embedded in both the military and political fabric of the country.

‘If you want to understand just how important a leader he is to the Iranians, Vahidi is kept well underground.

‘He is a serious man. This is a guy who they say played a leading role in the attack on a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires in 1994, 85 people were killed. He’s one of five Iranians sought for that bombing.

‘This is a guy that was doing some really nasty stuff around the world. He’s a massive hardliner.’

Listen to the full episode by searching for Deep Dive wherever you get your podcasts.