Johnny Manziel’s unexpected absence from ESPN’s College GameDay has turned into a unique promotional moment for both the former Heisman Trophy recipient and the prediction-market platform, Kalshi.

Earlier this month, it was announced that Manziel, the celebrated ex-quarterback of Texas A&M, would return to his old stomping grounds to serve as the guest picker for the show. His appearance was scheduled just before the Aggies’ playoff match against the Miami Hurricanes in College Station on December 21.

However, just as anticipation peaked, College GameDay host Rece Davis made a surprising announcement. Instead of Manziel, former Texas A&M basketball standout and two-time NBA champion, Alex Caruso, was called up to fill the spot.

The sudden change left fans bewildered, especially since Manziel had been spotted the previous night at Miami’s Kaseya Center for Jake Paul’s much-discussed boxing bout against Anthony Joshua.

Social media quickly became a hotbed of speculation. Some fans speculated that Manziel’s well-documented struggles with alcohol might have re-emerged, while others suggested potential friction between Manziel and ESPN or a possible spat with College GameDay co-host, Pat McAfee.

Manziel has since claimed he was battling an illness, and on Wednesday, released a new statement encouraging fans to place bets at Kalshi, a prediction-market platform. 

Johnny Manziel’s recent no-show on ESPN’s College Game Day has given way to a promotional opportunity for both the former Heisman winner and Kalshi

Manziel was supposed to appear on College Gameday with Pat McAfee (pictured) before his alma mater, Texas A&M, hosted Miami on December 20 in College Station, Texas 

‘FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE,’ began the statement dated December 30 and posted on X the following day.

‘There’s been plenty of speculation lately,’ Manziel wrote. ‘I’m good with ESPN. I’m good with McAfee.

‘If you want to keep guessing, you can now do it officially. Thanks to Kalshi, you can trade on whether I’ll be back on College GameDay in 2026.

‘The market currently gives me a 34% chance of being back on set next season. If you think that number’s low, take the other side.’

Following Manziel’s post, that figure spiked up over 50 percent. 

Fans online weren’t amused, generally speaking.

‘Get this dude a publicist for the love of god,’ one critic wrote.

‘Good thing Kalshi didn’t exist when you played,’ another wrote. ‘I would’ve lost my kid’s college fund betting on your odds of winning rookie off the year.’

Another called Manziel’s post ‘the most Johnny Manziel thing I’ve ever read.’

For the uninitiated, Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket an increasingly popular alternatives to far more regulated sportsbooks.

Manziel encouraged his followers to place bets on him returning to College Gameday 

Kalshi connecting gamblers who want to wager on whether Manziel will return to College Gameday in 2026. Although he was initially a longshot, that figure spiked after his X post 

The emerging industry’s trading platforms do work like online sportsbooks by offering futures contracts at prices and returns that fluctuate like betting odds (i.e. underdogs pay off better than favorites). Customers are given binary choices (‘yes or no’ or ‘one or the other’) on any number of positions, from gas prices to the next Pope and, of course, sports: Will the Knicks win this year’s NBA title? etc.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket made news during the 2024 US Presidential race by using customers’ wagers to accurately forecast Donald Trump’s electoral victory over Kamala Harris. Since then, the industry has faced cease-and-desist orders in several states as platforms have taken hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on everything from March Madness to the Masters.

Crucially, these websites consider themselves to be ‘exchanges’ rather than ‘sportsbooks.’ As a result, they face fewer taxes and are more widely available because they’re not being prohibited, or even regulated, by individual states. 

Rather, prediction markets are under the federal jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — something Nevada state senator Dina Titus sees as a ‘backdoor way’ to legalizing sports gambling without necessary safeguards.