The Texas Bowl presents a stark contrast between the paths of LSU and the 21st-ranked Houston, despite what the narrow betting odds might suggest.

LSU’s season has been marked by disappointment, with lofty goals left unachieved, a midseason coaching upheaval, and a significant exodus of players as the program transitions into the Lane Kiffin era. The team taking the field now is a far cry from the one that started the season.

With Garrett Nussmeier sidelined, Michael Van Buren Jr. steps up for his fourth career start, playing behind an offensive line that has seen significant changes. This unit was already struggling, with the offense’s efficiency ranking outside the top 100 in early downs EPA per play, whether in passing or rushing.

Moreover, LSU failed to score more than 25 points against any FBS opponent throughout the season.

Given these challenges, expecting a sudden surge in offensive capability from LSU seems unlikely, particularly when facing a Houston defense known for its early-down effectiveness and forcing opponents into lengthy drives.

The Cougars sustained stability in Willie Fritz’s second year guiding Houston, improving from five wins to nine through a low-possession, high-leverage game. 

Quarterback Conner Weigman’s announcement that he will return in 2026 solidified buy-in, and his production wasn’t shabby: 2,475 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, plus 644 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores. 

The Tigers competed with a vicious defense that propelled them to a top-20 unit in EPA per pass and rush allowed. There are a laundry list of names missing from that group here: Harold Perkins Jr., Whit Weeks, West Weeks, Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy and Jack Pyburn.

Houston averaged 28.3 points per game after running to the tune of just 14 per game last year.

Betting on College Football?

I’m careful about how I think about motivation. If the narrative pulls enough weight, then it’s worth considering. Houston is chasing its first bowl win since 2022, a 10th victory in a breakthrough season, and gets LSU in a virtual home game at NRG Stadium. 

It’s tough to stack that up against a Tigers program already turning the page to 2026.

All of Houston’s wins this season have come by at least three points, so this short number is attractive. It doesn’t need style points to cover; it just simply needs to be itself. 

THE PLAY: Houston -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.