Each U.S. president encounters a defining moment that significantly impacts their legacy and administration.

For Joe Biden, this moment occurred with the chaotic withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan seven months into his term, a decision from which his approval ratings have yet to recover. Jimmy Carter saw his presidency marred by the unresolved Iran hostage crisis, while George W. Bush struggled to regain favor following the fallout from Hurricane Katrina.

Now, Donald Trump faces a critical juncture as his approval ratings plummet to unprecedented lows in the wake of incidents involving immigration officers and their involvement in the shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minneapolis.

A recent poll conducted by the Daily Mail and JL Partners reveals Trump’s approval rating at 45 percent, matching his lowest recorded figure in this survey and down two points from the previous week. Currently, 55 percent of Americans express disapproval of his overall job performance.

Particularly concerning for Trump is the diminishing support for his long-standing focus on immigration, an issue that has defined much of his political career. Only 39 percent of respondents approve of his approach to immigration, while 47 percent express disapproval.

According to the Daily Mail poll, 53 percent of voters say the chaos in Minneapolis has been a ‘turning point’ moment for them personally. That includes 39 percent of Republicans. 

It marks, without question, a key watershed in his presidency.

Whether it proves the start of an interminable decline, or a nadir from which he will bounce back, is now up to Trump as he seeks to extricate himself from the political quicksand that is engulfing him.

Trump is facing a turning point in his presidency, according to a Daily Mail poll

The zealousness with which ICE has pursued its mission is now the number one driver of disapproval of the president, the Daily Mail poll revealed.

It showed 28 percent of Americans rank that as the main reason for their disapproval of Trump, a surge of 10 points from before the shooting of Pretti by immigration officers in Minneapolis on Saturday.

ICE far exceeds the second-placed reason for disapproval of Trump – 16 percent ranked the cost of living and inflation as their main choice.

The scale of the self-inflicted political wound is all the more staggering because Trump has already successfully fulfilled his key campaign promise to stop illegal immigration at the border.

It was a pledge that helped him sweep all seven swing states just 14 months ago.

Behind the scenes, officials have indicated he is angry that his success at the border has not been communicated properly to the public.

Instead, there has been a constant deluge of news reports about undocumented foreign nannies and gardeners being arrested by masked and heavily armed ICE operatives, culminating in the disaster that has now engulfed Minneapolis.

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on board Air Force One amid chaos in Minneapolis

Homeland Security Kristi Noem has been the face of Trump’s immigration enforcement

A large crowd marches down a street during during the “ICE out of Minnesota: Day of Truth and Freedom” protest in Minneapolis, Minnesota on January 23, 2026

For the White House, the warning signs are flashing red but, as yet, it is unclear whether Trump will sink or swim.

As he nears 80, insidious rumors about his health that have been spreading like poisonous vines through the underbelly of Washington, are now breaking out into the open.

Administration officials offer Pollyannish tales of his ‘superhuman’ defiance of age, but they sound eerily similar to the ones told by Biden’s aides in the dying days of his presidency. 

But, more alarmingly for Trump, the Daily Mail poll shows America holds him responsible for events in Minneapolis.

The poll shows 33 percent believe the ‘Trump administration’ is to blame, while only 20 percent said ICE.

Alex Pretti, 37, a US citizen who lived in Minneapolis and worked as a nurse, was shot dead by federal immigration officers in Minneapolis

ICE itself was viewed favorably by only 32 percent, and unfavorably by 55 percent.

That gave ICE a negative 23 percent approval rating, plummeting 12 points since November.

Almost one in four Republicans now view ICE unfavorably, according to the poll.

For the party, which needs to gather its support before midterm elections in November, that amounts to a code red.

Meanwhile, more than half of all Americans (53 percent) say ICE raids in US cities should stop, while only 36 percent say they should continue. 

The poll also showed 60 percent say ICE is ‘overreaching,’ including three in ten Republicans.

Support for disbanding ICE completely stands at 47 percent, including one in four Republicans, according to the Daily Mail poll.

A man arrested by federal agents moments prior escapes in handcuffs after tear gas went off in Minneapolis.

Beyond ICE and Minneapolis, there is a wider problem too. Trump is struggling on all issues, according to the poll.

Only 36 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, with 51 percent disapproving.

Even less, 33 percent, approve of his efforts to tackle inflation, with 53 percent disapproving.

Just 31 percent approve on healthcare, with 49 percent disapproval.

Foreign policy – where he has focused much of his time – stands at 36 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval.

The moment that the first of 10 shots is fired in the shooting of Alex Pretti

Customs and Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino is being moved out of Minneapolis

Trump’s sinking approval among Republicans is perhaps the biggest problem for the White House.

Even on the issue of the Second Amendment, 21 percent of Republicans believe gun rights are not secure under this administration.

That comes after Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem suggested that Pretti, who was a licensed gun carrier, should not have gone armed to an anti-ICE protest.

Only 43 percent of Republicans agree with her assessment that the shooting of Pretti was justified, according to the Daily Mail poll.

As the midterm elections loom, the actions of ICE are set to light a touchpaper that Democrats can transform into a massive turnout at the ballot box.

Republicans face losing control of the House, leaving Trump fighting an uphill battle for the final two years of his presidency, along with the possibility of being impeached for a third time.

Amid the chaos emanating from Minneapolis, he has acted swiftly.

On Monday, he held a crunch two-hour meeting with Noem in the Oval Office, at which the level of his frustration can only be guessed.

What is known is that Trump has sent his border czar, Tom Homan, to Minneapolis, while Greg Bovino, a high-profile immigration official who faced criticism for his aggressive tactics, has been moved out.

Noem, who has so far been the face of Trump’s immigration blitz, has favored sweeping, sometimes televised, operations to round up large numbers of illegal migrants.

Homan prefers to target serious criminals dubbed the ‘worst of the worst.’

Kristi Noem and border czar Tom Homan appear to have disagreed over how to enforce Trump’s immigration policy

Warning signs are flashing for the White House, according to a Daily Mail poll

According to the Daily Mail poll, Trump’s move is in line with the public’s thinking, and should help him stave off the crisis.

The poll found 48 percent of Americans believe immigration enforcement should be refocused on criminals – essentially Homan’s approach – with only 22 percent saying it should continue as it is.

Asked what Trump should do now, 22 percent said he should defend the federal officers in Minneapolis, while 63 percent said he should announce an investigation.

Their judgment on Noem was clear – by 42 percent to 28 percent she should be sacked.

For Trump, a midterm wipeout and anemic poll ratings for the rest of his presidency would threaten his legacy.

It remains to be seen if he recognizes the current moment as the historic turning point that the poll suggests it could be.