Israel is facing a deepening political crisis that could soon bring down Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, as one of its key ultra-Orthodox partners threatens to leave the government and back an opposition-led motion to dissolve parliament next week. 

Recent Israeli opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu’s coalition would likely lose power if elections were held today.

The crisis centers on long-standing tensions over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men. While most Israelis are required to serve – three years for men, two for women – Haredi men have long been granted exemptions, a policy increasingly seen as untenable amid the ongoing war in Gaza.

If those parties walk, Netanyahu’s coalition could collapse, Segal explained, “The prime minister has seven weeks until the Knesset enters a months-long recess and will fight to survive until then. But with a bill to dissolve the Knesset set to be presented next week, there’s no guarantee he’ll reach July 27 as prime minister.”

Dozens of protesters stage a demonstration inside Jerusalem’s ultra-Orthodox Mea Shearim neighborhood, calling for the community to be drafted to the IDF. (Eyal Warshavsky/SOPA Images/Sipa USA/Sipa via AP Images)

The bill, introduced by opposition party Yesh Atid, led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, is set for a vote on June 11. It needs 61 votes to pass – a number that could be reached if even a few coalition members defect.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has announced a political comeback with a new party, tentatively called “Bennett 2026.” Israeli media polls suggest Bennett would win 24 to 28 seats if elections were held today, overtaking Netanyahu’s Likud, which is projected to receive only 19 to 22 seats.