Netanyahu Fails to Win Majority as Israel Faces Three Possible Paths to Form a Government

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition remained far from a parliamentary majority Thursday after additional ballot counts revealed a sharp increase in support for Arab parties, potentially giving the opposition enough strength to challenge his grip on the Knesset.

By 4 a.m. ET Thursday, or 10 a.m. local time in Israel, 93.8% of ballots had been counted, including votes from the double-envelope tally. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc was projected to take 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, while the opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot was projected to win 48. The two mainly Arab parties were expected to capture 19 seats combined, potentially giving the anti-Netanyahu camp a 67-seat majority.

The latest projections kept Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest single party, with 26 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar party followed with 21, while former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party was projected to win 12. The results remain preliminary.

Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot was projected to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government on their own. The outcome sets the stage for challenging coalition talks and raises the possibility of another election.

The most significant change came among Arab voters in Israel, where turnout climbed sharply compared with previous elections and could alter the country’s political balance.

About 80% of Arab voters participated, up from 53.2% in the 2022 election, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. The 2026 turnout figure is preliminary.

The Joint List was projected to secure 11 seats, while Ra’am was expected to win eight. Their combined 19 seats would nearly double the Arab parties’ representation, which stood at 10 seats after the 2022 election.

Nationwide turnout stood at 77.7% when polls officially closed at 10 p.m. election night, the highest level recorded by that hour since 1999, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee.

The surge in Arab participation could play a decisive role in shaping Israel’s next government. Eisenkot and several other opposition leaders said during the campaign that they would not bring Arab parties into a governing coalition. However, Arab lawmakers could still help the opposition remove Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu ally, and give it greater influence over the legislative agenda before a new government is established.

Qatar allegations intensify political battle

The political uncertainty deepened Thursday after a Channel 12 report alleged that large sums from Qatar may have been funneled toward efforts to influence turnout in Arab communities.

N12 reported that some of the money may have moved through financial networks, including currency exchanges, that had previously been used to transfer funds to terrorist organizations.

The claims have not been independently verified. Investigators have not determined whether foreign funding took place or whether any election-related offenses were committed.

According to Channel 12, Shin Bet Director David Zini shared intelligence about suspected foreign interference with Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, who then ordered an investigation.

In a letter published by N12, Sohlberg directed the domestic security agency to examine the allegations and determine what evidence might confirm or refute them. He asked for the findings within a week, pointing to the limited time available as ballots continued to be counted.

Sohlberg’s letter did not name Qatar as the alleged foreign power involved. That detail came from N12’s report.

Qatar firmly rejected the allegations Thursday, saying Israeli politicians were attempting to pull the Gulf state into Israel’s internal political disputes after the election.

“We categorically deny allegations that Qatar has interfered in Israeli elections or funded any activities intended to influence their outcome,” Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dr. Majed Al-Ansari wrote on X.

Al-Ansari said Israeli politicians and allied media outlets were conducting a “disinformation campaign,” adding that Qatar had been accused of funding Netanyahu, Israel’s left wing and, most recently, Arab voters.

“If these claims were to be believed, Qatar would apparently own all of Israel,” he wrote. “Qatar should not be used as a scapegoat for the political failures of certain Israeli politicians,” Al-Ansari added, insisting that Qatar had no involvement in Israel’s electoral process and would continue its diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in the region.

Acting Central Elections Committee director general Dean Livne also rejected the allegations in a letter to Yesh Atid MK Vladimir Beliak, who sits on the committee. “The Knesset elections were conducted lawfully. The integrity of the elections at polling stations was rigorously safeguarded, and to the best of our knowledge, there is no basis for allegations of systematic violations of election integrity.”

But the allegations quickly became part of the political confrontation over whether opposition parties should cooperate with Arab lawmakers.

Netanyahu and Likud had already challenged the legitimacy of the Arab parties’ electoral gains. On Wednesday, before the latest Qatari allegations emerged, Likud accused Arab parties of stealing the election through alleged voter fraud, accusations that had not been substantiated.

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In a statement Thursday, Likud argued that the suspected foreign interference made cooperation with the Arab parties unacceptable.

“After it became clear that foreign actors attempted to take control of the Knesset, it is obvious that no Zionist party must cooperate with Ra’am and the Joint List, replace the Knesset speaker using votes bought with cash, or establish a government dangerous to Israel,” the party said.

The assertion that parliamentary seats were obtained through purchased votes has not been established by the investigation.

Hauser Tov, a political reporter for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper, argued on X that the statement revealed Likud’s immediate political objective: preventing the opposition from using its potential parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker.

Israeli journalist Amir Tibon wrote on X that “The main reason they want to prevent this is so that the Knesset won’t vote to establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7.” He argued that such an investigation could examine Qatari involvement in Gaza and Israel.

Eisenkot responded to the allegations Thursday, after meeting with Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) Director David Zini. “Foreign involvement in Israel is unacceptable and profoundly serious, particularly when it involves a country that funds and supports Hamas,” Eisenkot said. “It is serious when it occurs in the Prime Minister’s Office, and it is serious if it occurs in the electoral process.”

He called on the Shin Bet to investigate the allegations thoroughly and take the strongest possible action against anyone found to have attempted to compromise the election’s integrity.

Eisenkot also accused Netanyahu and his allies of conducting “an illegitimate influence operation targeting the Israeli public,” claiming its purpose was to delay the publication of the results and undermine the legitimacy of the newly elected Knesset.

Israeli political commentator Amit Segal also cautioned against assuming the allegations would lead to the cancellation of election results.

“The likelihood of the entire election being invalidated is extremely slim, given the time constraints,” Segal wrote on X. He suggested the developments could instead intensify discussions about a unity government or another election.

Meanwhile, Democrats party leader Yair Golan urged opposition leaders to move quickly toward forming a new government.

“The people have spoken. Sixty-seven seats demanded change,” Golan wrote Thursday on X, adding that he intended to spend the day meeting with political partners and coalition negotiators. “I intend to leave no stone unturned, act in every possible way and do everything necessary to fulfill the voters’ will,” he added.

The comments underscored the central question emerging from the election: whether parties united in their opposition to Netanyahu can overcome their differences, particularly over cooperation with Arab lawmakers.

Could Trump help broker a unity government?

Another possibility is a national unity coalition involving Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar party, potentially excluding the Arab parties and Netanyahu’s far-right allies.

Such an arrangement could also align with the preferences of figures close to President Donald Trump, who publicly endorsed Netanyahu ahead of the election.

According to Ynet diplomatic correspondent Itamar Eichner, sources close to Trump said the president wants to ensure that far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is excluded from the next Israeli government, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich potentially excluded as well.

A separate Ynet report said Trump associates had contacted Israeli political figures to assess the prospects for a unity government and expressed a preference for a stable coalition without Ben-Gvir.

Trump himself has not publicly endorsed a specific unity arrangement.

Asked Wednesday by Axios whether he would become involved in efforts to establish a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump said, “I will take a look.”

A unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot would face substantial obstacles. Eisenkot repeatedly pledged during the campaign not to join a Netanyahu-led government, while Netanyahu’s far-right partners have warned against efforts to exclude them.

The ultra-Orthodox parties present another potential route to a parliamentary majority. Netanyahu’s projected 53 seats include 14 held by Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have traditionally aligned with him.

Those 14 seats, combined with Eisenkot’s projected 48-seat opposition bloc, would mathematically produce a 62-seat majority. But such an arrangement would face major disagreements over military conscription, as Eisenkot has pledged to expand mandatory service to ultra-Orthodox men, while the religious parties have sought to preserve exemptions for yeshiva students.

Political divisions within Eisenkot’s own bloc would present additional obstacles to such a coalition.

For now, the foreign interference allegations remain under investigation, while the election results continue to show Netanyahu’s existing coalition without the parliamentary majority required to govern on its own.

Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed, a process that could take weeks or longer.