Recent statistics reveal a significant decline in birth rates across the United States, with Utah, a state traditionally known for its family-oriented culture, unexpectedly leading this downward trend.

Historically, the post-World War II baby boom had a transformative impact on American society, driving the rapid growth of suburban areas and the widespread development of single-family homes. During this period, approximately 79 million babies were born, fundamentally reshaping the nation’s demographic landscape.

In stark contrast, the current fertility rate in the U.S. has dropped to an average of 1.6 children per woman as of 2024, according to an analysis by Realtor.com. This rate is notably below the replacement level of around two children per woman needed to maintain population stability, and it also falls short of the 2.1 average seen in other developed nations.

Over the last ten years, the proportion of Americans under the age of five has significantly decreased, highlighting a demographic shift where adults now outnumber children in almost every state. This trend underscores a pivotal change in the nation’s population dynamics.

Over the past decade, the share of Americans under five has plunged, signaling that adults now outnumber children in nearly every state. 

A recent analysis of the US Census American Community Survey, comparing 2010 to 2024 data across nearly every metro, found that the steepest declines in the under-five population are clustered in the West. 

Five of the largest falls are unexpectedly in Utah, despite the state’s reputation for a family-friendly culture, according Realtor.com’s findings.

The accelerated wave of decline has also reached smaller cities in both Colorado and Nevada.

Baby populations have hit an all-time low in the United States, and surprisingly, family-friendly Utah is leading the decline, according to a new data analysis from Realtor.com

The US fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 children per woman in 2024 – a stark difference from the 79 million babies born nationwide during the baby boom

Five of the largest falls are in Utah: Logan, Ogden, Provo and St. George saw the biggest drops in their under-five populations, falling 3.2 percent

In the midst of a countrywide drop, a few cities stand out for bucking the trend – most notably Kokomo, Indiana, where the under-five share rose from 5.4 percent to 6.4 percent. 

It’s important to note, however, that this data doesn’t measure the number of babies born or living in a city – instead, it shows the share of children under five relative to the total population. 

There are usually two reasons for this phenomenon: either fewer young children, or faster growth among other age groups. 

In many Western metros, including Utah’s cities, an influx of working-age adults and retirees has grown the population, which in turn lowers the share of children under five. 

Logan, Ogden, Provo and St. George saw the biggest drops in their under-five populations, falling 3.2 percent, with Salt Lake City close behind at 3.1 percent.

But in 2010, these same Utah metros had some of the highest shares of children under five – around 9.8 percent – compared with the national average of 6.5 percent.   

As a result, Utah had ‘room’ to decline as fertility slowed and incoming residents tended to be older, according to Realtor.com.

What’s driving the decline in the scenic Mountain State? For one, women are having children later and fewer of them, steadily shrinking the under-five share.

Salt Lake City was close behind, falling at 3.1 percent

The decline may be attributed to two factors: women having children later and fewer of them, and a wave of working-age transplants and older residents moving to Utah

A wave of working-age transplants and older residents moving to Utah has further reduced the under-five share by swelling the total population. 

Beyond Utah, the sharpest declines occurred in even smaller Western cities – particularly Grand Junction, Colorado, and Carson City, Nevada, according to the data analyzed by Realtor.com.

Grand Junction saw its under-five share plunge from 6.6 percent in 2010 to 3.6 percent in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the entire dataset.

In Carson City, the under-five share dropped from 6.6 percent to 4 percent.

One major reason mirrors Utah’s trend: an influx of retirees seeking a new home and movers drawn to a different lifestyle in the West. 

Americans chasing mountain views, lower housing costs and tax perks have, in turn, diluted the share of young children – even if birth rates remain steady. 

Other small metros across the US, including Farmington, New Mexico, and Pocatello, Idaho, have seen similar declines – Farmington down 2.6 percent and Pocatello down 2.5 percent. 

Because these areas have much smaller populations than major metros like New York City, their job markets and migration patterns are more volatile, making them sensitive to even small changes.

Grand Junction, Colorado, saw its under-five share plunge from 6.6 percent in 2010 to 3.6 percent in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the entire dataset

In Carson City, Nevada, the under-five share dropped from 6.6 percent to 4 percent

In the midst of a countrywide drop, a few cities stand out for bucking the trend – most notably Kokomo, Indiana, where the under-five share rose from 5.4 percent to 6.4 percent

In these small metros, a single major employer moving out can reshape the population, and even a modest influx of adults can sharply shrink the share of young children.

The baby boomers first entered the housing market at 25 to 34 – and now, that age group still accounts for an astonishing 42 percent of all homebuyers, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Now, amid the affordability crisis, the typical first-time homebuyer is 40 years old, with millennials making up just 29 percent of buyers.

All of this suggests that the new realities of the housing market could also be a major factor influencing the country’s birth rate. 

However, a handful of small metros, like Kokomo, Indiana – which saw a full one percent increase in its under-five share – may offer clues about what is helping retain young families amid falling fertility. 

The small industrial city, located in Indiana’s Rust Belt, has a history of economic struggle, having been hit hard during the Great Recession. 

Over time, the city has worked to revitalize itself – building new apartments, renovating homes, expanding parks and trails, creating walkable streets and introducing a free five-route bus system, according to City Journal.

Efforts to reverse the decline have kept families in place, but Manhattan tells a different story: between 2020 and 2023, the city lost 92,000 children under five – a 17 percent decline – while median rents for an apartment jumped 30 percent. 

Only a few other cities defied the overall decline – Charlottesville, Virginia, gained 0.4 percent, with Decatur and Gadsden, Alabama, each rising 0.2 percent.