Prediction markets are gambling platforms and should be regulated by individual states, the NFL argued in a legal filing submitted to the Supreme Court and reviewed by The Daily Mail.
Backing New Jersey regulators’ petition for authority over prediction-market operator Kalshi, the NFL said these platforms limit its ability to protect consumers. The league argued that customers remain vulnerable under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
An NFL source told The Daily Mail that the league’s position is not opposition to prediction markets themselves. Instead, the source said, the amicus brief represents another effort to secure stronger consumer protections through state-level oversight.
Prediction markets classify themselves as “exchanges,” not “sportsbooks,” because they act as intermediaries between two traders rather than taking the opposing side as the house. That distinction allows them to face fewer taxes and operate more broadly, since many states have neither prohibited nor regulated them. Instead, they fall under the supervision of Donald Trump’s CFTC, a system the NFL is challenging.
The league source said the dispute would be less significant if the CFTC adopted many of the safeguards already used by state regulators. The NFL said in its filing that it has repeatedly urged the commission to implement those measures.
The NFL claims it accounted for more than half of all wagers across prediction markets on the opening Sunday of the 2026 season, totaling about $1.8 billion in bets on a single day of games
“If the Commission and DCMs did so, this case would present a largely academic question with little practical consequence,” the brief stated. “But that is not what has happened. Despite the NFL’s repeated overtures, the Commission and [prediction markets] like Kalshi thus far have resisted the commonsense measures that the NFL has requested.”
The NFL’s central concern involves wagers it believes are especially vulnerable to manipulation.
According to the league, online sportsbooks and partners such as FanDuel and DraftKings have accepted certain customer-protection measures, while prediction markets have not made the same commitments.
“The NFL has made clear – to states, the Commission, and operators like Kalshi – that certain categories of sports event contracts that are highly susceptible to manipulation or otherwise inherently objectionable threaten game and market integrity and should be prohibited,” the brief stated.
Potentially manipulable markets could include bets on field goals, player or fan misconduct and even the timing of penalties.
Commissioner Roger Goodell has refrained from partnering with a prediction-market platform
The NFL also urged the Supreme Court to act quickly, saying the game’s integrity and consumer safety are at stake.
“It is important that this Court grant cert now to provide clarity before another NFL season goes by,” the brief stated. “Billions of dollars will be bet on NFL games through prediction markets each season and any delay from SCOTUS will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity.”
The filing also said Kalshi has generated substantial revenue without the level of state oversight the NFL considers necessary.
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Kalshi “cleared” more than $173 billion in total trading volume from January through August, according to the NFL. The league claimed a significant share of that activity, saying more than half of the $3.3 billion traded across prediction markets on the opening Sunday of the NFL season came from football-related markets.
The Daily Mail has contacted representatives for Kalshi and fellow prediction-market operator Polymarket for comment.
Federal appeals courts have issued conflicting rulings on whether states can enforce their gambling laws against prediction markets and override the CFTC’s authority. Some decisions have favored state regulators, while others have supported prediction-market operators.
The NFL’s filing urged the Supreme Court to preserve the approach that existed before prediction markets emerged.
“It is well established, however, that regulating gambling is among states’ sovereign police powers,” the NFL brief stated. “What constitutional power allows Congress to override states’ traditional police powers to regulate intrastate gambling?”
Kalshi has partnered with the NHL, as well as some MLB teams, including the Boston Red Sox
Prediction markets have faced significant pushback in recent years.
The divisive industry favored by Trump’s White House operates similarly to online sportsbooks by offering futures contracts with prices and returns that fluctuate like betting odds (i.e. underdogs pay off better than favorites).
Customers are given binary choices (‘yes or no’ or ‘one or the other’) on any number of positions, from gas prices to Trump’s next turn in Iran, and of course, sports: Will the Dodgers win the upcoming World Series? Etc.
Prediction markets can also access customers below the age of 21, which is typically the minimum for sports gambling in approving states.
‘The NFL has urged the Commission to adopt that same age limit, given the unique dangers of gambling to young Americans,’ read the league’s brief. ‘But the Commission thus far has declined, instead allowing 18-year-olds to place sports wagers on [prediction markets]. The Commission’s insistence that its rules preempt state gambling laws anomalously means that, in almost every state, an 18-year-old could not bet on a game through Caesars Sportsbook, but could bet on the same game through Kalshi.’
Prediction markets have been received more warmly in other areas of American sports.
While the NFL remains a notable holdout, leagues such as the NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS and UFC have embraced prediction markets. In fact, fans at Yankee Stadium will see Polymarket LED branding in the South Bronx when the team returns to action following Wednesday’s season-ending playoff loss in Tampa.
There will even be some exclusive fan experiences from Polymarket.
‘We are proud to become a partner of one of the most iconic teams, not just in baseball, but in all of sports,’ Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket, said when the deal was announced earlier this season.